At the behest of the United States, G7 leaders have agreed to offer at least $50 billion in loans to Ukraine, using interest from Russian sovereign assets. Russia’s assets in the G7 countries were frozen after the invasion of Ukraine more over two years ago.

In addition to Ukraine’s future, the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip was a prominent topic on the first day of their summit in Fasano, southern Italy, with the G7 members endorsing a US-proposed cease-fire agreement.

The G7 loan agreement was reached amid concerns about “Ukraine fatigue,” with questions remaining about how long the US and other like-minded countries can stay united in supplying Kyiv with weaponry and assisting it in rebuilding damaged infrastructure.

US President Joe Biden has described the Russian invasion, which began in February 2022, as “a test” for the globe, presenting the question of whether it can unify “for sovereignty, freedom, and against tyranny.”

“The United States, the G7, and countries around the world have constantly answered the question with ‘Yes, we will.’ We’ll say it again. “Yes, again and again, we will stand with Ukraine,” Biden said at a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was invited to the summit as a guest.

US perpetrated the loan

The US has committed to provide loans of up to $50 billion, according to a senior Biden administration official, adding that it will not be the only lender. “It will be a loan syndicate. We’re going to share the risk because we’re all committed to getting this done,” the official explained.

According to a Japanese official, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida informed his G7 counterparts that his country’s funds will not be utilized for military purposes due to its war-renouncing Constitution.

However, the official declined to provide information about the new lending scheme. He stated that the leaders “are planning to make some kind of announcement” regarding the plan in their communique, which is anticipated to be released Friday.

Since the invasion, the G7 has slapped a number of economic restrictions on Moscow, including asset freezes. The US official, who previewed the arrangement on the condition of anonymity, did not reveal which G7 members will participate in the new project.

A G7 source said Japan, the United Kingdom, and Canada are expected to join the US-led initiative, while France, Germany, and Italy are unlikely to participate for the time being because the European Union already has a comparable support plan.

Russia to bear the expense

According to the US source, Ukraine will not have to repay up to $50 billion in loans from the group of the world’s top industrialized democracies, which will begin this year. Russia will ultimately bear the expense.

According to the Japanese government, the G7, along with Australia, has frozen around $280 billion in Russian governmental assets, as well as approximately $58 billion in assets owned by individuals, companies, and organizations in the country.

Kishida’s government has concentrated on giving support for Ukraine’s rehabilitation in accordance with Japan’s Constitution, such as demining cooperation and nonlethal defense equipment.

During the summit’s opening session, Kishida emphasized the importance of maintaining a free and open international order based on the rule of law, as well as strengthening connections with developing and emerging countries in the “Global South,” according to Japan’s Foreign Ministry.

Both “have become increasingly important as we face new challenges, including Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East,” Kishida told the ministry.

Rebuilding Ukraine

Regarding Ukraine, Kishida stated that Japan is considering putting sanctions on foreign companies and groups for exporting supplies to Russia through third countries that could be diverted for military purpose, according to the ministry.

The action would be implemented with specific entities in China, India, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Uzbekistan in mind, it stated.

The World Bank estimates that rebuilding Ukraine will cost $486 billion over the next decade, which Ukraine is expected to fund with loans, creating commercial opportunities for Japanese and international corporations.

In late May, Biden announced a three-stage cease-fire plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas, claiming it had been suggested by Israel and is customarily backed by the US.

The United Nations Security Council approved the plan earlier this month, but US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on Wednesday that Hamas had made various adjustments, some of which were impossible.

International pressure has mounted on Israel to halt its military campaign in Gaza, which has displaced thousands of Palestinians and caused serious food, water, and energy shortages.

The G7 criticized Hamas’ “terrorist” strikes on October 7, which started Israel’s continuing offensive in the Gaza Strip, but avoided publicly denouncing Israel.

Source: BBC

In recent days, Russian troops, backed by fighter jets, artillery, and deadly drones, have poured across Ukraine’s northeastern border and taken over at least nine villages and towns in the last three days. Each day, they’ve taken over more land than at almost any other time in the war, except for the beginning.

Ukrainian troops are pulling back in some places, and leaders are pointing the finger at each other for the losses. A lot of Ukrainian people are running away to Kharkiv, which is the closest big city.

Their advances are barely a few miles deep, but they have taken up approximately 100 kilometers (62 miles) of Ukrainian land. Russia took months to achieve the same result in Ukraine’s highly defended east.

Russia asserts that its forces have penetrated the border town of Vovchansk, which Ukraine disputes. The town has been heavily bombed in recent days, and thousands of civilians have been evacuated.

Denys Yaroslavskyi, the Commander of a Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit, is outraged and wants to know what happened to Ukraine’s defenses. “There was no first line of defense.” We saw it. The Russians have just walked in. “They just walked in, with no mined fields,” he tells the BBC.

He claims officials claimed that defenses were being developed at great expense, but in his opinion, those defenses simply did not exist. “It was either a case of incompetence or corruption. It was not a failure. “It was betrayal.”

Everyone expected this incursion. Both Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies were aware that Russia was assembling soldiers over the border, with estimates of up to 30,000 troops.

President Vladimir Putin had also openly expressed his intention to establish a buffer zone within the Kharkiv region to safeguard Russian territory from Ukrainian artillery strikes. However, despite government claims, Ukraine appears to have been unprepared.

Denys, who talked to the BBC from a park in Kharkiv, says he’ll be back on the front lines with his guys in an hour, near the town of Vovchansk, just 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the Russian border.

According to reports, Russian troops have already reached the town’s perimeter. Denys expresses concern that it may soon be back in Russian control.

We had previously visited the town, accompanying a local police officer, Oleksii, who was collecting up locals who wanted to evacuate to safety. He was driving quickly to evade the Russian drones hovering overhead and the continual bombardment of artillery.

Prior to the war, the town had a population of approximately 20,000. The majority had fled at the outset of the war, reducing the population to 3,000 – but hundreds more have left in recent days. According to Oleksii, “it’s easier to leave now, before they get killed or injured” .

Russia is advancing in Kharkiv by destroying Ukrainian villages and towns. Oleksii says that Russia has been shooting 50 to 60 shells into the town every hour.

Then there are glide bombs, which are launched from Russian jets tens of kilometers from the front lines, well beyond the range of Ukraine’s inadequate air defenses.

Russian army tank fired on an apartment building in Mariupol, Ukraine: Image AP

Russia Bombarding Ukraine

Russia has been shooting approximately 100 glide missiles every day across the 1,000 kilometer front. Over the course of an hour, we heard half a dozen jet-like screeches, followed by earth-shattering explosions.

Opening a new front in the north tests Ukraine’s limited resources. The US’s delay in approving additional military aid has depleted Ukrainian forces of ammunition.

Ukraine has been able to fire one artillery round per ten rounds fired by Russia. That is slowly being rectified, with US assistance now on the way.

However, the Kharkiv offensive highlighted issues that Ukraine has been too sluggish to address, such as mobilizing sufficient troops and constructing effective defense lines. Re-enforcements dispatched to Kharkiv have had to be taken from other sectors of the front, leaving insufficient reserves.

Ukrainian officials continue to stress that Kharkiv is not under fear of a ground invasion. However, the further the Russians push, the more probable it will be within range of Russian fire.

Denys believes Russian forces will try to focus on the east and take the entire Donbas. However, he claims Russia is also attempting to exploit Ukrainian weaknesses all along the 1,000-kilometer front. In Kharkiv, they found one.

President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Getty Images

Hundreds of Billion Spent

Since the beginning of the war, the United States Congress has passed five measures providing continued help to Ukraine, the latest recent in April 2024. The overall budget authority under these bills, known as the “headline” figure, is $175 billion.

Dozens of other countries, including most NATO and EU members, are also contributing significant aid to Ukraine.

Furthermore, on February 1, 2024, European leaders decided to spend up to $54 billion for a new Ukraine Facility to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernization, as well as its reform initiatives as part of the EU membership process, until 2027.

This takes their total commitment to date to more than $155 billion. Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the United States and its NATO partners have allocated $330 billion to Ukraine.

Russia’s military and war-related spending is expected to increase 29% year on year to 12.8 trillion rubles, or nearly $140 billion.

Meanwhile, Ukraine faces an existential threat equal only to the moment immediately before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, unlike in the past, improvements are unlikely to occur very soon.

Ukraine may lose the war

Not only have conditions along the frontline deteriorated significantly, according to Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky, but the possibility of a Ukrainian defeat is now being discussed in public by people such as General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command.

On April 13th, Barrons stated to the BBC that Ukraine may lose the war by 2024 due to a sense of inability to win. And when it reaches that point, why would anyone want to fight and die to protect the indefensible?

This could be his strategy of pressuring the West to offer greater military supplies to Ukraine more rapidly.

However, the fact that the secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Jens Stoltenberg, publicly accepts that in order to end the war, Ukraine will have to negotiate with Russia and decide ‘what kind of compromises they’re willing to do’ is a clear indication that things are not going well for Ukraine.

By Geoff Thomas

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that China has provided the most feasible peace plan so far for settling the Ukraine conflict. More than a year ago, Beijing presented a 12-point peace plan that outlined fundamental principles for ending the war but did not go into detail.

China received a lukewarm reaction in both Russia and Ukraine at the time, with the US accusing China of presenting itself as a peacemaker while reflecting Russia’s “false narrative” and neglecting to criticize its invasion.

“The most important thing for us is that the Chinese text is based on an examination of the reasons for what is occurring and the necessity to address these core causes.

Lavrov told Reuters reporters that it is logically constructed from general to specific.

“This plan was criticized for being unclear… But this is a sensible proposal that the ancient Chinese civilization submitted for consideration.”

Lavrov is scheduled to meet with his Chinese colleague soon, and President Vladimir Putin stated last month that he might consider visiting China for his first abroad trip of the next six-year term.

Russia says it is eager to engage in negotiations regarding Ukraine, but they must reflect what it terms the “new realities” on the ground, where its soldiers control just under a fifth of the country and Moscow claims four Ukrainian regions as its own.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has proposed his own peace plan, which asks for the halt of hostilities and Russia’s complete evacuation from all occupied territories.

Praising China’s idea allows Moscow to demonstrate that it is willing to talk about peace while criticizing Zelenskiy’s initiative, which Lavrov described as “a menu from which you can pull whatever you want”.

Switzerland has announced that it will host a meeting based on Zelenskiy’s proposal, but Russia has dismissed the idea as meaningless and claimed it will fail without Moscow’s involvement.

US Pulls Back from Ukraine

For the past two years, Ukraine has relied on American armaments to combat Russian invaders. It has attacked Russian positions with US artillery, destroyed tanks with Javelin missiles, and halted aerial attacks with Patriot missiles.

However, American backing has significantly fallen. House Republicans have banned more help to Ukraine, and the Biden administration cannot send much more arms. (The $300 million package announced this week is expected to benefit Ukraine for only a few weeks.)

Ukraine has already experienced the effects. Russia has made some gains in the past month after seizing the eastern city of Avdiivka, which was formerly a Ukrainian bastion. Intelligence sources warned Congress this week that Ukraine’s losses foreshadow what is to come from an under-supplied military effort.

According to the New York Times, the Biden administration, Ukraine retreated after running out of artillery ammunition. These weapons have played a significant part in the fight, with Ukraine using them to dissuade and weaken Russian attacks before engaging in close combat.

However, due to limited supplies, Ukraine’s authorities chose to sacrifice Avdiivka in order to save ammunition for more critical terrain, such as the Black Sea coastline and the country’s northeast. The disorderly retreat that followed made Ukrainian forces and civilians vulnerable.

Russia does not face the same situation. Despite Western sanctions, the economy is humming away. It manufactures weapons and supplies its troops. Its allies, particularly North Korea and Iran, have helped cover the gaps.

Ukraine’s European partners have not taken up the majority of the slack as American support has declined. European countries have committed to increase military expenditure to protect themselves and one another, but the process will take years. Ukraine might not have much longer.

The battle is currently at a standstill, despite Avdiivka. Ukraine most likely has enough supplies to withstand most Russian attacks for several weeks, if not months. Analysts previously doubted Ukraine’s ability to launch big offensives this year, even if it received further aid.

In the long run, America’s weakened backing will likely force Ukraine to cede additional territory. Russian forces presently control approximately 20% of Ukraine’s former land, and they want more.