Thailand Politics
Will Sunday’s Election in Thailand Ease or Aggravate the Political Conflict
BANGKOK – This Sunday will be a crucial day for Thailand, as voters cast their ballot to decide on the country’s future after almost 5 years under Junta Military Rule. What happens after the ballot boxes are closed remains uncertain.
Will this election end a decade-long political conflict, or will it just create a new round of political battles?
With voting less than a week away, observers and political scientists who speaking to The Nation, believe that the most likely scenario after the poll is that General Prayut Chan-o-cha will return as prime minister, thanks mainly to support from Phalang Pracharat Party and its elitist allies.
Based on this scenario, Uttama Savanayana’s Phalang Pracharat along with its allies – Ruam Palang Prachachat Thai Party of Suthep Thaugsuban and the People Reform Party of Paiboon Nititawan, plus the 250 new senators – will most certainly vote for Prayut as prime minister.
With the advantage accorded by the current charter – which allows the new Senate, handpicked by the National Council of Peace and Order, to vote for the next PM – it will not be difficult for Prayut to secure the post, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.
But for him to sail through, his camp must secure at least 126 seats in addition to the 250 senators to win the required 376 votes, Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist from King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said.
Prayut securing the PM’s position will also be key to attracting other parties to join them as coalition partners, he added.
The academics all agree that Prayut and his allies can easily win backing from the three medium-sized parties, namely Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana, as well as the Democrat Party.
In this scenario, Stithorn estimates this camp will have obtained about 270 seats or more than half of the 500 seats in Parliament, which is enough to form a secure government.
The number could vary, with 220 seats to Phalang Pracharat, its allies and the Democrats, plus 50 seats from the three medium parties.
However, this scenario will only materialise if Phalang Pracharat wins more seats than the Democrats, or becomes the second largest party after Pheu Thai, Stithorn said.
Yet they believe the likelihood is that the pro-junta party will win more seats than the Democrats due to certain factors such as the new electoral system.
Titipol said that according to his observation, Phalang Pracharat’s popularity is rising in the provinces because voters are satisfied with the welfare cards the government has given to low-income earners.
“Also, the party’s political discourse – ‘maintaining peace and order’ – is working well,” he added.
Though Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva reiterated last week that he would not support Prayut’s return as premier, many see this as just a political ploy to win younger voters.
The Democrats have in the past proved that they are willing to compromise with the military, so if the party were to be offered key ministerial posts now in exchange for backing Phalang Pracharat, why will they not do it? Titipol asked.
However, Stithorn said the Democrats may also want to be the second biggest winner, so they can have the legitimacy to become a core party to form the government in coalition with other medium parties, as well as Phalang Pracharat, Stithorn said.
For this scenario to materialise, the number of votes by which the Democrats win will have to be a fair bit higher than the votes won by Phalang Pracharat, he added.
Odds Against Pheu Thais
Will Pheu Thai be able form a government?
Yes, say the observers, but they see this is as the least possible scenario.
For this formula to materialise, the Thaksin Shinawatra-backed party and allies namely – Future Forward, Seri Ruam Thai, Puea Chat and Prachachart – must secure at least 250 seats, Stithorn said.
However, Pheu Thai and its allies can only be expected to garner 220 to 230 seats at most, or 120 or 160 directly from Pheu Thai and 60 to 70 from allies. This, according to Stithorn, will not be enough to form a government.
For a party or coalition to form a government, it needs more than 270 seats in hand for the sake of stability, said Yuthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.
Like Stithorn, Yuthaporn believes Pheu Thai and its allies will get less than 200 seats, so they need to rely on the three medium parties – Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana – for support.
Hence, Yuthaporn said, these three parties – who are expected to win around 50 seats altogether – will play a vital role in deciding whether Phalang Pracharat or Pheu Thai form the next government.
However, all the academics agree that there is only a slim possibility of a government being jointly formed by Pheu Thai and the Democrats, as they will need at least 376 seats to fight against the 250 senators when it comes to voting for a PM.
Also, Yuthaporn said, there is no law setting a timeframe for the new government to take office. So, if the two camps fail to come to a decision on forming the new administration, Prayut can continue holding on to his job as premier under the current government, he said.
As they say, Thai politics is not one plus one equals two and any unexpect can happen.
There is also a clear possibility of a political deadlock if people do not accept the election results or if a new government cannot be formed.
“If that happens, then these elections will have failed to ease the conflicts and instead created a new, more complex conflict,” Yuthaporn warned.
Thailand Politics
Thai Prime Minister’s Popularity Declines as Move Forward Party dominates
(CTN News) – Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin continues to make local and international visits to try to solve problems and promote Thailand, but he has failed to impress most voters, according to a Nida poll. The poll also revealed the declining popularity of Pheu Thai Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the rise of the Move Forward Party.
According to a poll released on Sunday, only 12.85% of people supported the prime minister, down from 17.75% in the previous survey. The daughter of convicted former Prime Minister Thaksin, currently on parole, saw her popularity drop from 6% to 4.85%.
The National Institute of Development Administration conducts a quarterly survey of the public’s preferred political leaders. The last survey was released at the end of March.
According to the survey, supporters of the prime minister described Mr Srettha as a resolute decision-maker determined to address their problems. Ms Paetongtarn was complimented for her vision, leadership, knowledge, and grasp of the country’s difficulties.
This weekend, the prime minister will be in the northeast region listening to citizens’ concerns. The journey occurred only a few days after he had visited northern provinces earlier in the week.
Despite criticism, he has reduced his abroad trips, citing the need to showcase Thailand to investors and traders.
Pita Limjaroenrat, the chief advisor of the Move Forward Party, remained the top candidate for prime minister with 45.50% of the vote, up slightly from 42.75% in the previous quarter’s poll.
Pirapan Salirathavibhaga was the huge winner. The leader of the United Thai National Party saw his popularity nearly quadruple from 3.55% to 6.85%.
The sampled voters stated they appreciated Mr Pita’s political beliefs and thought he had broad knowledge. They praised Mr Pirapan’s credibility, claiming he was clean and honest.
Two other probable prime minister candidates were Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Thai Sang Thai Party and Anutin Chanvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai. However, they were less popular than others.
About 20% of voters still did not believe any candidate was qualified to lead the country, which is the same percentage as in the last survey.
Move Forward Party was the most popular party with 49.20%, up slightly from three months ago, while Pheu Thai fell around five percentage points to 16.85% from 22.10%.
The poll, issued on Sunday, surveyed 2,000 ineligible voters between June 14 and June 18.
More in: Move Forward Party
Thailand Politics
Move Forward Party MP Jirat Thongsuwan Appeals Suspended Jail Sentence for Defamation
(CTN News) – Jirat Thongsuwan, a Move Forward Party MP, says he would appeal his one-year suspended jail sentence for defaming a former senior defense ministry official concerning the state’s procurement of bogus bomb detectors.
The Criminal Court also fined Mr Jirat 100,000 baht for falsely accusing ACM Tharet Punsri, a former Air Force chief-of-staff who later became the ministry’s deputy permanent secretary, of being the chairman and shareholder of a company that supplied the military with the infamous GT200 bomb detectors.
The Chachoengsao MP claimed a July 20, 2022, no-confidence vote against cabinet ministers in Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government. ACM Tharet was not a cabinet member.
Jirat Thongsuwan also identified ACM Tharet as a key figure in the 2006 coup headed by then-army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, which overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra.
ACM Tharet told the court that Jirat Thongsuwan’s charges were false and harmed his reputation. He denied involvement with the bomb detection company and said he was not the company’s senior chairman or shareholder.
In addition to the suspended jail term and fine, the court ordered Jirat Thongsuwan to pay $ 500,000 baht in damages to ACM Tharet and publish an apology in three newspapers for five days.
Jirat Thongsuwan later announced on his X account that he had challenged the verdict with the hashtag “An injustice is infuriating”.
The MP has also been accused of dodging required military conscription. He admitted to the accusation on May 8.
A British business promoted the GT200 as a “remote substance detector” and sold it in several countries. Between 2004 and 2009, fourteen Thai government organizations, most of which were military, were projected to spend 1.4 billion baht on the units.
Concerns about the GT200 and related gadgets arose after the National Science and Technology Development Agency discovered they lacked electronic components.
The devices were later revealed to be “divining rods”.
Thailand Politics
Thaksin Shinawatra Files 100 Million Baht Defamation Lawsuit Against Warong Dechgitvigrom
(CTN News) – Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, has launched a defamation action against Warong Dechgitvigrom, the head of the Thai Pakdee Party, accusing him of paying a bribe to be released on bail in a lese majeste case.
Thaksin’s attorney, Winyat Chartmontree, filed a lawsuit against Warong, seeking 100 million baht in damages.
Warong, a long-time Thaksin Shinawatra critic, gave a public statement and posted on social media, saying that 2 billion baht was paid to judicial officials in exchange for release on bail in the lese majeste case.
Thaksin Shinawatra Granted Release on 500,000 Baht Bond
Thaksin was granted release on a 500,000 baht bond last week and told not to leave the country without court authorization after pleading innocent to charges of defaming King Rama IX in a 2015 interview with South Korean media.
Winyat stated that, while Warong did not identify Thaksin Shinawatra by name in his speech or post, he did include a hashtag with Thaksin’s name as well as the date Thaksin must appear in court, allowing readers to connect Thaksin to the allegations.
Winyat further stated that he was investigating the fact that Warong mentioned the specific aircraft and automobiles utilized by Thaksin Shinawatra to violate the Personal Data Protection Act.
“I have requested Mr Warong to provide proof as to where he received the data. “If it turns out that it came from state officials, there will be legal consequences,” he warned.
The Criminal Court has scheduled the case’s preliminary hearing for September 30.
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