Thailand Politics

Thailand’s Military Junta Walks a Tightrope with Foreign Powers

Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha (R) speaks with Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (L) during a news conference at the Government House

BANGKOK – Thailand now stands on a tightrope among the major powers. Recently, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made a high-profile visit to Bangkok, hosted by the coup-appointed government of Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha. Medvedev’s visit suggests that Thailand is now strategically courting authoritarian major powers, namely Russia and China, in defiance of Western criticism of Bangkok’s coup and military regime.

At the same time, the Medvedev visit, along with recent high-level engagements between Thailand and China, indicates that the military-led government is being expedient. It is courting China and Russia but also waiting to re-engage with the West at the earliest opportunity. As is often the case in diplomacy and power politics, Chan-o-cha’s government seeks a balance somewhere in between.

In Russia’s foreign policy calculus, Medvedev’s visit to Bangkok, and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, is part of a broader ‘pivot to Asia’, echoing the United States’ geostrategy under President Barack Obama. Traditionally a Eurasian power that straddles eastern Europe and central Asia, under President Vladimir Putin post-Soviet Russia is reclaiming its lost glory and territory.

But Russian assertiveness has come at a high price. Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and ongoing battle for the eastern parts of Ukraine has incurred Western rebuke and punitive economic sanctions. A debilitated commodities-based Russian economy has turned to China, both North and South Korea, and even Japan for succour. While Japan is beholden to its treaty alliance with the United States, the Chinese leadership has been accommodating to Russia. Moscow–Beijing relations are arguably the warmest since the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960–80s.

Southeast Asia was always part of the rhetoric of Russian foreign policy, but now it is becoming more of a reality. Apart from Vietnam, Moscow’s traditional ally from the Cold War period, the Russian leadership is eyeing Thailand and other ASEAN countries. Russia is desperate to ride on the coattails of Asia’s rise in the 21st century, and Southeast Asia is front and centre of this ascendancy. For its part, Thailand is instrumental in Russia’s geostrategic outlook because of its critical mass and location.

This unfolding great-power realignment on the global stage bears far-reaching ramifications, pitting China and Russia as authoritarian heavyweights on the one hand and Western countries — alongside certain Asian democracies, such as Japan — on the other. Thailand, a solid middle power when it has its act together and a fledgling developing country when it does not, is caught in the middle.

This means that whichever administration is in office in Bangkok — whether it is the previous governments of Thaksin Shinawatra’s political machinery, the opposing tenure of the Democrat Party or military rule — Thailand must embrace China’s rise and welcome Russia’s overtures. China is the new game in the regional neighbourhood, and Russia provides Bangkok with a useful hedge in the regional geopolitical mix. What’s more, China’s ties with Thailand date back many centuries, while Russia proved a foul-weather friend in Thailand’s hour of need in the 1890–1900s when European imperialists pressed against Bangkok from all directions.

But there is also a measure of what might be called Thailand’s ‘pivot towards external authoritarianism’ at work. Under a more democratically legitimate government in Bangkok, led by either the Thaksin-controlled parties or the Democrat Party, Thailand’s balancing act among the major powers would be more even-keeled. Western countries and Japan would woo Bangkok all the more in the face of aggressive Chinese and Russian suitors.

But domestic authoritarianism reinforces Thailand’s turn towards external authoritarian regimes that would do business with Bangkok’s military-led government. Tough responses to the coup and to domestic authoritarian rule from Japan and the West may well hold as long as Bangkok is bereft of a democratically legitimate government based on popular sovereignty. While this continues, Thailand’s internal authoritarian rule, and its pursuit of receptive and accommodating authoritarian regimes abroad, will become more entrenched.

If the military-led government does not last long and Thailand returns to the global community of democracies, then Bangkok is likely to realign itself in the major-power mix. So Thailand’s foreign policy depends on how long the interim coup period lasts: the longer the coup, the greater the risk that Thai authoritarianism will align with outside authoritarian powers for the longer term.

Just two decades ago, it appeared that Thailand’s place in the global community of open societies, market-based economies and democratic polities was firmly secured. This is no longer the case. But even if the military remains ensconced in power in Bangkok for several years, it is also difficult to imagine Thailand turning into a fully-fledged member of the undemocratic, authoritarian club for good.

The big issue is whether Thailand’s democratisation and its civil society have come far enough to withstand military-led rule. Although authoritarianism has made a remarkable resurgence, a pluralistic culture — nurtured in the 1970–90s and reinforced by international norms and media technology — may have strong enough roots to preserve an open society and democratic polity. The ultimate verdict will become apparent over the next few years. And it will most likely be a messy and prolonged affair.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Associate Professor and Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

A version of this article was first published in The Bangkok Post.

Thailand Politics

Thai Prime Minister’s Popularity Declines as Move Forward Party dominates

(CTN News) – Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin continues to make local and international visits to try to solve problems and promote Thailand, but he has failed to impress most voters, according to a Nida poll. The poll also revealed the declining popularity of Pheu Thai Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the rise of the Move Forward Party.

According to a poll released on Sunday, only 12.85% of people supported the prime minister, down from 17.75% in the previous survey. The daughter of convicted former Prime Minister Thaksin, currently on parole, saw her popularity drop from 6% to 4.85%.

The National Institute of Development Administration conducts a quarterly survey of the public’s preferred political leaders. The last survey was released at the end of March.

According to the survey, supporters of the prime minister described Mr Srettha as a resolute decision-maker determined to address their problems. Ms Paetongtarn was complimented for her vision, leadership, knowledge, and grasp of the country’s difficulties.

This weekend, the prime minister will be in the northeast region listening to citizens’ concerns. The journey occurred only a few days after he had visited northern provinces earlier in the week.

Despite criticism, he has reduced his abroad trips, citing the need to showcase Thailand to investors and traders.

Pita Limjaroenrat, the chief advisor of the Move Forward Party, remained the top candidate for prime minister with 45.50% of the vote, up slightly from 42.75% in the previous quarter’s poll.

Pirapan Salirathavibhaga was the huge winner. The leader of the United Thai National Party saw his popularity nearly quadruple from 3.55% to 6.85%.

The sampled voters stated they appreciated Mr Pita’s political beliefs and thought he had broad knowledge. They praised Mr Pirapan’s credibility, claiming he was clean and honest.

Two other probable prime minister candidates were Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Thai Sang Thai Party and Anutin Chanvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai. However, they were less popular than others.

About 20% of voters still did not believe any candidate was qualified to lead the country, which is the same percentage as in the last survey.

Move Forward Party was the most popular party with 49.20%, up slightly from three months ago, while Pheu Thai fell around five percentage points to 16.85% from 22.10%.

The poll, issued on Sunday, surveyed 2,000 ineligible voters between June 14 and June 18.

Thailand Politics

Move Forward Party MP Jirat Thongsuwan Appeals Suspended Jail Sentence for Defamation

(CTN News) – Jirat Thongsuwan, a Move Forward Party MP, says he would appeal his one-year suspended jail sentence for defaming a former senior defense ministry official concerning the state’s procurement of bogus bomb detectors.

The Criminal Court also fined Mr Jirat 100,000 baht for falsely accusing ACM Tharet Punsri, a former Air Force chief-of-staff who later became the ministry’s deputy permanent secretary, of being the chairman and shareholder of a company that supplied the military with the infamous GT200 bomb detectors.

The Chachoengsao MP claimed a July 20, 2022, no-confidence vote against cabinet ministers in Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government. ACM Tharet was not a cabinet member.

Jirat Thongsuwan also identified ACM Tharet as a key figure in the 2006 coup headed by then-army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, which overthrew Thaksin Shinawatra.

ACM Tharet told the court that Jirat Thongsuwan’s charges were false and harmed his reputation. He denied involvement with the bomb detection company and said he was not the company’s senior chairman or shareholder.

In addition to the suspended jail term and fine, the court ordered Jirat Thongsuwan to pay $ 500,000 baht in damages to ACM Tharet and publish an apology in three newspapers for five days.

Jirat Thongsuwan later announced on his X account that he had challenged the verdict with the hashtag “An injustice is infuriating”.

The MP has also been accused of dodging required military conscription. He admitted to the accusation on May 8.

A British business promoted the GT200 as a “remote substance detector” and sold it in several countries. Between 2004 and 2009, fourteen Thai government organizations, most of which were military, were projected to spend 1.4 billion baht on the units.

Concerns about the GT200 and related gadgets arose after the National Science and Technology Development Agency discovered they lacked electronic components.

The devices were later revealed to be “divining rods”.

Thailand Politics

Thaksin Shinawatra Files 100 Million Baht Defamation Lawsuit Against Warong Dechgitvigrom

(CTN News) – Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, has launched a defamation action against Warong Dechgitvigrom, the head of the Thai Pakdee Party, accusing him of paying a bribe to be released on bail in a lese majeste case.

Thaksin’s attorney, Winyat Chartmontree, filed a lawsuit against Warong, seeking 100 million baht in damages.

Warong, a long-time Thaksin Shinawatra critic, gave a public statement and posted on social media, saying that 2 billion baht was paid to judicial officials in exchange for release on bail in the lese majeste case.

Thaksin Shinawatra Granted Release on 500,000 Baht Bond

Thaksin was granted release on a 500,000 baht bond last week and told not to leave the country without court authorization after pleading innocent to charges of defaming King Rama IX in a 2015 interview with South Korean media.

Winyat stated that, while Warong did not identify Thaksin Shinawatra by name in his speech or post, he did include a hashtag with Thaksin’s name as well as the date Thaksin must appear in court, allowing readers to connect Thaksin to the allegations.

Winyat further stated that he was investigating the fact that Warong mentioned the specific aircraft and automobiles utilized by Thaksin Shinawatra to violate the Personal Data Protection Act.

“I have requested Mr Warong to provide proof as to where he received the data. “If it turns out that it came from state officials, there will be legal consequences,” he warned.

The Criminal Court has scheduled the case’s preliminary hearing for September 30.