Connect with us

Politics

What happens if Biden, Trump drop 2024 Presidential bids?

Published

on

What happens if Biden, Trump drop 2024 presidential bids

(CTN News) – With one of the 2024 presidential candidates facing four criminal indictments and the other recently described as having “diminished capacities,” voters are asking a key question as they prepare to vote: what happens if a candidate has to drop out for whatever reason?

The upcoming rematch between President Joe Biden and expected Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, marks the first time a major presidential contender has faced over 90 charges across four indictments from New York to Florida. The former president and his enterprises are also involved in other litigation actions.

Biden’s age has been a concern among voters leading up to the election. However, a recent report from the Justice Department’s special counsel investigating his handling of classified documents has brought the issue to the forefront, portraying Biden as an elderly man with “diminished capacities” and memory loss.

If elected, the two contenders would become the oldest serving presidents by the end of their terms. By the end of his second term, Biden would be 86 years old, while Trump would be 82.

Given Trump’s legal processes and both candidates’ ages, what would happen if either nominee had to withdraw from the contest because they were incompetent, were convicted of charges, or ended up in jail?

The answer mostly depends on when.

“I believe the unprecedented nature of this is that you have a former president facing 91 indictments on one side, and both likely nominees are old,” Josh Putnam, a political scientist specialising in delegate selection procedures and elections, told USA TODAY.

“Actuarially speaking, something could happen to one or both of them, and they may not be around through the whole process.”

Here’s what could happen if Biden or Trump withdraws from the 2024 presidential race:

According to experts, if either contender withdraws before the national conventions, which are conducted in July for Republicans and August for Democrats, selecting the next nominee becomes more problematic.

Why are conventions so important?

Each party’s nominee is officially selected in a national party convention every presidential election year.

Following state primaries, candidates are assigned delegates based on their vote totals. These delegates attend the conventions of each party and represent the candidate. To become the party’s official nominee, the candidate must receive a majority of delegate votes.

Each state allocates delegates differently based on its system. In rare situations, the winning candidate receives all of the state’s delegates. In other states, delegates are allocated depending on a candidate’s percentage of votes.

Delegates to each party’s national convention are often assigned to a certain candidate based on their respective states’ primary and caucus processes.

But things can grow more difficult.

In several states, Republicans have “unbound” delegates who can vote for whatever candidate they like. Democrats have “unpledged” delegates, who can only vote if the first round is challenged and no candidate receives the majority of votes.

If an election is contested, there may be additional rounds of voting, similar to how former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., had to overcome 15 rounds of voting to become speaker last January.

Another factor to consider is when Biden or Trump withdraws from the primary race. If a candidate withdraws early before accumulating a large number of delegates, other White House contenders may opt to try to win the nomination by acquiring the remaining delegates.

“In other words, there’s more time for competition,” DNC member Elaine Kamarck, a founding director and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, explained.

However, if they drop out towards the end of the primaries, which conclude in mid-June, the amount of delegates a contender will receive is mostly fixed.

Putnam, founder of FHQ Strategies, a non-partisan political consulting firm, emphasises that determining the number of delegate slots does not automatically select the candidates who will fill those slots, which can often lag behind primary election dates.

And this procedure is crucial, particularly if a presumptive nominee withdraws.

“The selection of the people there matters as to who’s going to be deciding on the convention as to who the replacement would become,” Putnam said.

For example, Putnam stated that the Trump team strives to guarantee that any delegate seats Trump is assigned are filled by devoted followers who will support the former president regardless of any convictions he may face.

If Biden or Trump step out before the delegate selection process is completed, Putnam believes it will be more “free for all” regarding how state parties fill the delegate seats. These delegates would attend the convention and maybe nominate someone who wasn’t on the ballot.

If a candidate withdraws between the last primary and the party’s nomination convention, the party returns to its historical roots.

Republicans would arrive in Milwaukee, and Democrats would arrive in Chicago. Delegates would be “uncommitted,” which means they do not support a single candidate and must decide who the next nominee will be.

In this scenario, potential party nominees would visit each state’s delegation to solicit their support.

What about Republican candidates who ran in primaries and pulled out, like former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, but still received a few delegates?

According to strategists, the possibility of Haley becoming the Republican convention’s alternate candidate if Trump’s legal issues lead to his downfall seems unrealistic.

If Trump is no longer in the picture, the delegates loyal to the past president may decide to support someone altogether different who never conducted a campaign during the primary season.

At this juncture in the race, Haley is unlikely to earn more delegates than Trump, especially since the GOP’s rules changed and many states switched to a winner-take-all system for assigning delegates.

“I think it will be difficult for her to gain more delegates. John Fortier, a senior scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right research tank, told USA TODAY that he believes the situation is severe.

Regarding Trump’s legal processes, no procedures or norms would prevent the former president from serving a second term if he is arrested, convicted, or imprisoned.

Until recently, voters considered a presidential candidate’s conviction or imprisonment disqualifying, according to Chris Edelson, an assistant professor of government at American University. But, regardless of the rules, there is nothing criminal about it.

“We’re headed towards this really uncharted situation,” he said.

This has happened before. In 1920, socialist candidate Eugene Debs campaigned for president while serving a 10-year sentence for sedition. Debs got nearly a million votes.

Edelson argued that while Trump is unlikely to be imprisoned in 2025, he may be convicted within the following year.

“There’s plenty of time for a trial to take place,” he told reporters.

If Trump is convicted, it’s unclear if his delegates must vote for him until he withdraws from the campaign, which he has stated he will not do.

RNC regulations allow states to unbind delegates from a candidate if they withdraw from running.

RNC chair Ronna McDaniel stated on CNN’s State of the Union in November that whoever the voters choose is the acceptable choice for the Republican party, even if Trump is guilty. “…As party chair, I’ll back whoever the voters choose. And, absolutely, if they select Donald Trump.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Millennials in Canada Have Turned their Backs on Justin Trudeau

Published

on

By

Millennials are increasingly distancing themselves from Trudeau
Millennials are increasingly distancing themselves from Trudeau - CBC Image

Justine Trudeau and his Liberal Party are currently engaged in a fierce battle for second place against Jagmeet Singh’s socialist NDP, as both parties find themselves trailing by 20 points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.

A recent poll indicates that 38% of Canadians consider Trudeau to be the most ineffective leader the nation has encountered in over fifty years. An impressive 47% of Canadian Millennials indicated they would support Poilievre if an election were to take place today, while nearly half of all Canadians express a desire for an election to be called this year.

Pierre Poilievre’s strong appeal among young voters can be attributed primarily to economic factors: soaring inflation, a pressing cost-of-living crisis, and the challenge of housing affordability are pushing many away from the Liberals, who have held power for nearly nine years.

According to UnHeard, Millennials are increasingly distancing themselves from Trudeau due to his stringent measures aimed at controlling the internet to combat alleged disinformation, as well as his climate change initiatives, notably the carbon tax.

protest in downtown Toronto against mass immigration took place on Canada Day

Protest in downtown Toronto against mass immigration on Canada Day – TNC Image

An increasing number of Canadians are becoming aware of Trudeau’s ineffective policies and his approach to mass immigration. This past summer, there was significant outrage among parents of teenagers and young adults as they observed their children remaining at home without jobs.

The primary concern stemmed from the fact that most low-skilled and entry-level positions were being filled by unskilled, temporary foreign workers, predominantly from India.

There has been a notable rise in criminal activities linked to international students and unvetted temporary residents who are becoming involved with Punjabi gangs in Canada, contributing to a surge in auto thefts nationwide.

Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are actively seeking to alter Trudeau’s approach to mass immigration and prioritize the construction of more housing should they come into power.

Significantly, Pierre Poilievre is perceived as more trustworthy than Trudeau, with over half of Canadians characterizing Poilievre as “open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions,” while only 39% share that sentiment regarding Trudeau.

The characteristics in question may shed light on Poilievre’s favorable polling, particularly among younger voters and women, who have historically leaned towards the Liberals or the NDP rather than the Conservatives.

The Liberal Party’s support has dwindled to an estimated 7% of Canadians, revealing a significant number of disillusioned voters eager for transformation. Poilievre is emerging as the type of leader that resonates with the desires of many Canadians.

Related News:

Trudeau Now Using Abortion Scare Tactics to Recapture Voters

Trudeau Now Using Abortion Scare Tactics to Recapture Voters

Continue Reading

Politics

U.N. Special Rapporteur Calls on Thailand’s Banks to Cut-Off Myanmar Junta

Published

on

UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar Tom Andrews speaks during a press conference after a meeting with Thailand's Parliamentary Committee

The U.N special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar has said the Bank of Thailand, commercial banks, and the anti-money laundering office are working on measures to stop the Myanmar Junta from acquiring weapons through Thailand’s banking system.

Tom Andrews the U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, said that some banks commercial in Thailand had aided Myanmar Junta’s by facilitating transactions that supplied military equipment to the Junta through the international banking system.

He called on the Bank of Thailand and financial institutions to do more to stop Myanmar’s junta acquiring weapons which they use on civilians to maintain power.

The special rapporteur was in Bangkok to address a parliamentary committee on security, he called on the Thai government to stop financial transactions that help supply weapons to Myanmar’s junta in line with a plan promoted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that sets out an end to violence as a first step toward peace.

In his 2023 report “The Billion Dollar Death Trade,” Andrews noted that Singapore had implemented a clear policy opposing the transfer of weapons to Myanmar.

Thailand's Banks

Thai Baht – File Image

Thailand’s Banks Lacked Clear Policy

As a result, exports of weapons and related materials from Singapore-registered entities using the formal banking system dropped from almost U.S. $120 million in fiscal year 2022 to just over $10 million over the next 12 months.

However, he said Thailand had no explicit policy position opposing weapons transfer to the Myanmar Junta, which saw exports from Thai-registered entities more than double in 2023, from just over $60 million to nearly $130 million.

He called on Thai Government to conduct a thorough investigation into transfers as Singapore had done into its companies’ dealings.

Andrews told the the committee that five Thai commercial banks and Thai-based companies were assisting Myanmar’s junta obtain weapons, dual-technology items and jet fuel, enabling Military Junta to conduct atrocities against the people.

But said he had found no evidence that the Thai government was involved or was aware of the transactions or that Thai commercial banks had knowledge.

Thailand's Banks

Photo courtesy of The Nation

Banks Condemn Myanmar Junta Violence

Meanwhile representatives from Thailand’s central bank, anti-money laundering office and the commercial banks named in the report were also present at the parliamentary meeting at government house in Bangkok.

A representative of the Bank of Thailand said officials were working with the commercial banks and the anti-money laundering office to make sure that enhanced oversight was properly practiced.

The Thai Bankers Association that was also at the parliamentary meeting said it did not have the means to investigate and monitor such irregularities beyond Thailand’s borders.

Mr. Pongsit Chaichatpornsuk, a Thai Bankers Association representative told the committee that If government security agencies tell us, we will stop transactions. We don’t support arms procurement by Myanmar Junta or any military government to violate human rights.

Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar and hosts many thousands of refugees fleeing conflict there, has tried to promote dialogue between Myanmar’s military rulers and opposition forces but no progress has been made.

This Article was first published in RFA

Continue Reading

Politics

People Rushing Sign Online Petition to Impeach South Korea’s President Crash Site

Published

on

South Korea's President

The Speaker of the National Assembly of South Korea said in a statement that an online petition calling for South Korea’s President Mr. Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment crashed due to the enormous number of individuals attempting to sign the petition. Saying the National Assembly would resolve the matter as quickly as possible.

Since the petition was launch on the National Assembly’s website on June 20, more than 811,000 people have signed it. The petition urges Parliament to introduce legislation to impeach President Yoon on the grounds that he is unfit for office.

Late on June 30, National Assembly Speaker Mr. Woo Won-shik issued an apology for the disturbance and stated that Parliament would take action to protect the public’s fundamental rights.

People attempting to access the petition on July 1 experienced delays of up to four hours. At one point, an error message indicated that more than 30,000 individuals were waiting to access the site.

South Korea’s Parliament Hesitant

The online petition accuses Yoon of corruption, escalating the risk of conflict with North Korea, and endangering South Koreans’ health by failing to prevent Japan from leaking treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant.

By law, Parliament must assign every petition signed by more than 50,000 people to a committee, which will then decide whether to put it to a vote in the assembly.

However, the opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in Parliament, is hesitant to turn the petition into an impeachment bill, according to media reports, with a spokesperson stating that the party has yet to address the topic.

The Parliament can impeach a president with a two-thirds majority. The Constitutional Court then deliberates the motion and decides whether to remove or reinstall the president.

Meanwhile, on Monday Reuters reported North Korea criticized a joint military exercise performed this month by South Korea, Japan, and the United States, according to official media, saying such drills demonstrate the three nations’ alliance has evolved into “the Asian version of NATO”.

On Thursday, the three countries began large-scale combined military drills named “Freedom Edge” featuring navy destroyers, fighter fighters, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, with the goal of strengthening defenses against missiles, submarines, and air strikes.

The drill was designed at a three-way meeting at Camp David last year to boost military cooperation amid concerns on the Korean peninsula caused by North Korea’s weapons testing.

Pyongyang will not overlook the strengthening of a military bloc led by the United States and its allies, and it would respond aggressively and decisively to defend regional peace, according to North Korea’s foreign ministry, as reported by KCNA.

 

Continue Reading

Trending