Politics
US Allies Already Preparing for Trump 2.0 as 2024 Election Nears
“Trump 2.0” refers to former President Donald Trump’s anticipated second presidential term in 2024. After serving a single term from 2017 until 2021. Trump is on track to win the 2024 election and become a two-term president.
His followers are rallying around the “Trump 2-0” slogan, seeing it as an opportunity to further his “America First” agenda.
Now, America’s friends are bracing for a Trump 2.0 presidency, while incumbent President Biden’s popularity is plummeting in polls. Since his first presidential campaign in 2015, Donald Trump has held the highest national advantage in a New York Times poll.
Now Germany is undertaking a charm drive within the Republican party. Japan is preparing its own Trump whisperer. Mexican government officials are speaking with Camp Trump. Australia is also enacting legislation to help Trump-proof its defense ties with the United States.
Everywhere, US allies are taking efforts to defend or enhance their interests in the event that former President Donald Trump retakes power in the November elections, which has a 50-50 probability based on recent opinion polls in battleground states.
They want to avoid the icy smack that Trump’s “America First” policies handed them last time, which included trade battles, a reshuffling of security alliances, an immigration crackdown, and withdrawal from a global climate agreement.
Reuters spoke with diplomats and government officials across five continents about Trump 2.0 preparations. It revealed Mexican discussions about a new, Trump-friendly foreign minister, an Australian envoy’s role in scrambling to protect a submarine sale, and a German official’s meetings with Republican state governors.
Some foreign leaders have called Trump directly, despite the risk of irritating his Democratic presidential challenger, Joe Biden. According to a source familiar with the exchange, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince just called Trump, and Hungary’s prime minister and Poland’s president have visited with him in person in recent weeks.
British Foreign Minister David Cameron also met with Trump last month at his Florida estate. After their private dinner, he informed reporters in Washington that they addressed Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza conflict, and NATO’s future.
White House Press Secretary Declines to Comment
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre: Reuters Image
The White House directed Reuters to statements by spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre, who claimed encounters like Cameron’s were not unusual. She declined to comment on Trump’s meeting with Orban or the Saudi conversation, which the New York Times first reported.
The Saudi government’s communications office and the Trump campaign did not reply to demands for comment regarding the call.
According to the campaign, he met with each European leader to discuss security matters, including Polish President Andrzej Duda’s suggestion that NATO nations spend at least 3% of their GDP on defense. Currently, they plan to spend 2%.
Jeremi Suri, a presidential historian at the University of Texas, said encounters between candidates and diplomats were common, but Trump’s meeting with Orban and phone contact with Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman were rare.
According to Trump aide Brian Hughes, international leaders’ meetings and calls show awareness of what we already know here at home.
Joe Biden is ineffective, and when President Trump takes office as the 47th President of the United States, the world will be more safe and America will prosper.”
The campaign did not comment in depth to inquiries regarding the other results in this piece, but campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that “America’s allies are anxiously hoping that President Trump will be re-elected.”
Much of Trump’s contact has been less direct than meeting with the candidate.
Germany has been establishing connections with Trump’s Republican base at the state level, reminding party officials that the country invests considerably in American industry.
Germany Prepares for Trump 2.0
Germany Prepares for Trump 2.0: File Image
Germany is utilizing a transatlantic coordinator to prepare for Trump 2.0, keeping in mind that Trump promised harsh tariffs on Germany’s car industry while president and now intends to impose a minimum 10% tariff on all imports if reelected.
Michael Link, the coordinator, is leading what Berlin refers to as “bypass diplomacy,” which involves crisscrossing the union and targeting swing states in which Germany has a significant investment.
“It would be extremely important, if Donald Trump were re-elected, to prevent the punitive tariffs he is planning on goods from the EU,” he was quoted as saying.
He stated he had met with Republican governors from Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, and Indiana. At each location, he stresses how strong trade relations support Germany’s position in the United States.
According to two Mexico-based sources, government officials have been meeting with people close to Trump on issues such as migration and the trafficking of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, into the United States, both of which could result in increased US pressure on Mexico under another Trump administration.
Trump has stated that he would direct the Pentagon “to make appropriate use of special forces” to attack cartel leadership and infrastructure, which is unlikely to receive Mexican government approval.
The Mexican officials also talked on the North American free trade agreement, which was last revised under Trump’s presidency in 2020 and is up for review in 2026, according to sources. In recent public remarks, Trump complimented his revision of the contract.
And, in a sign of how important personal relationships are under Trump, Mexico’s ruling party is evaluating alternate candidates to install as the next foreign minister based on whether Trump or Biden appear to be the most likely winners, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
Mexico to Hold Elections in Junes
Presidential candidate of the ruling Morena party Claudia Sheinbaum: Image Reuters
Mexico has its own presidential election in June. If governing party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum wins, as expected, she will assume office in October, one month before the US election.
If Trump wins the election, she is likely to appoint Marcelo Ebrard as foreign minister, according to sources.
Ebrard served as Mexico’s foreign minister during Trump’s presidency and was widely regarded at home as having held his own in interactions with the administration.
If Biden wins, she is more likely to appoint political veteran Juan Ramon de La Fuente, according to the sources.
Sheinbaum’s campaign stated that she was not yet prepared to declare her choice. Ebrard’s spokeswoman stated that he was focusing on a Senate campaign while also supporting Sheinbaum’s presidential candidacy. De La Fuente did not return a request for comment.
To strengthen its diplomatic interaction with the Trump administration, Japan plans to send Sunao Takao, a Harvard-educated interpreter who helped former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bond with Trump over golf games.
Taro Aso, another former prime minister of Japan, met Trump in New York on Tuesday, according to a campaign spokesman.
America’s closest friend in Asia is concerned that Trump may reignite trade protectionism and demand more money to maintain US soldiers in Japan, according to government officials.
UK Labour Party Favored to Win Next Election
David Lammy Labour’s nominative foreign minister: Photo Getty Images
Britain’s Labour Party, which is now in opposition but is a strong favorite to win elections by the end of the year, may have a more difficult road to a positive relationship with a Trump presidency.
David Lammy, Labour’s nominative foreign minister, previously described Trump as a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi sociopath” in Time magazine. Lammy is now attempting to strengthen ties with Republicans, according to a Labour official.
Lammy has met with Republican leaders considered potential for positions in a Trump cabinet, including Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former Secretary of State, according to a Labour official.
Lammy declined an interview, but has stated that many British politicians have attacked Trump and that he will protect British interests as foreign minister regardless of who occupies the White House.
Victoria Coates, Trump’s former deputy national security advisor, warned a Labour victory may signal a rocky patch for US-UK relations if Trump wins, citing “personal vitriol” from Labour.
Australia Fears Trump Cancelling Defence Deal
Australia’s Ambassador to the U.S. Kevin Rudd: File Image
Kevin Rudd, Australia’s U.S. ambassador, recently earned Trump’s ire for previous criticism of the former president.
In a TV interview last month, Trump stated that he had heard Rudd, an ex-prime minister, was “a little bit nasty” and that “if he’s at all hostile, he will not be there long.”
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has supported Rudd, saying he would continue to serve as ambassador if Trump regained power. Behind the scenes, Rudd is attempting to prevent Trump from canceling a vital defense deal, according to an Australian diplomatic source.
The Biden administration has agreed to assist Australia in its first step toward creating a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines by selling three to five Virginia-class attack submarines.
Rudd has urged Canberra to move quickly to implement legislation that brings it closer to US arms-control standards and establishes a separate nuclear-safety council, in the expectation that it will make the sale more difficult for Trump to reverse, according to the source.
Trump’s “America First” Approach
Michael Shoebridge is the Director of ASPI’s Defence: Image Reuters
The embassy declined to respond. Canberra did not immediately respond to a request for comment. According to Michael Shoebridge of Strategic Analysis Australia, Trump’s “America First” approach might potentially jeopardize the pact.
“All the levers are there for Trump to say, ‘the U.S. Navy doesn’t have enough, so Australia don’t get any’,” the defense analyst said. Lobbying is a low-key option for US allies to influence Trump, especially if they wish to remain covert.
A former South Korean government official currently working in Washington said the Biden administration was keenly monitoring foreign governments and that Seoul preferred to learn Trump’s thoughts in a “stealthy manner” through lobbying firms.
South Koreans are flocking to Washington’s lobbyist district to learn about Trump’s views on trade and investment, as well as what will happen to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), according to a South Korean official.
The IRA encourages manufacturing reshoring and energy transformation. Trump also supports reshoring, but not Biden’s desire to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Some US allies use Trump-linked lobbyists, such as Ballard Partners, which is led by Brian Ballard, a Florida lobbyist known for his strong ties to Trump.
Ballard’s clients include Japan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the firm’s and the United States’ disclosure reports. It declined to name others.
“Many members of our firm have been longtime allies of the former president,” said Justin Sayfie, a partner at Ballard.
Japan’s foreign ministry stated that it sought advice and support from a diverse group of specialists. It declined to comment on its relationship with Ballard.
Source: Reuters
Justine Trudeau and his Liberal Party are currently engaged in a fierce battle for second place against Jagmeet Singh’s socialist NDP, as both parties find themselves trailing by 20 points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
A recent poll indicates that 38% of Canadians consider Trudeau to be the most ineffective leader the nation has encountered in over fifty years. An impressive 47% of Canadian Millennials indicated they would support Poilievre if an election were to take place today, while nearly half of all Canadians express a desire for an election to be called this year.
Pierre Poilievre’s strong appeal among young voters can be attributed primarily to economic factors: soaring inflation, a pressing cost-of-living crisis, and the challenge of housing affordability are pushing many away from the Liberals, who have held power for nearly nine years.
According to UnHeard, Millennials are increasingly distancing themselves from Trudeau due to his stringent measures aimed at controlling the internet to combat alleged disinformation, as well as his climate change initiatives, notably the carbon tax.
Protest in downtown Toronto against mass immigration on Canada Day – TNC Image
An increasing number of Canadians are becoming aware of Trudeau’s ineffective policies and his approach to mass immigration. This past summer, there was significant outrage among parents of teenagers and young adults as they observed their children remaining at home without jobs.
The primary concern stemmed from the fact that most low-skilled and entry-level positions were being filled by unskilled, temporary foreign workers, predominantly from India.
There has been a notable rise in criminal activities linked to international students and unvetted temporary residents who are becoming involved with Punjabi gangs in Canada, contributing to a surge in auto thefts nationwide.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are actively seeking to alter Trudeau’s approach to mass immigration and prioritize the construction of more housing should they come into power.
Significantly, Pierre Poilievre is perceived as more trustworthy than Trudeau, with over half of Canadians characterizing Poilievre as “open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions,” while only 39% share that sentiment regarding Trudeau.
The characteristics in question may shed light on Poilievre’s favorable polling, particularly among younger voters and women, who have historically leaned towards the Liberals or the NDP rather than the Conservatives.
The Liberal Party’s support has dwindled to an estimated 7% of Canadians, revealing a significant number of disillusioned voters eager for transformation. Poilievre is emerging as the type of leader that resonates with the desires of many Canadians.
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The U.N special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar has said the Bank of Thailand, commercial banks, and the anti-money laundering office are working on measures to stop the Myanmar Junta from acquiring weapons through Thailand’s banking system.
Tom Andrews the U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, said that some banks commercial in Thailand had aided Myanmar Junta’s by facilitating transactions that supplied military equipment to the Junta through the international banking system.
He called on the Bank of Thailand and financial institutions to do more to stop Myanmar’s junta acquiring weapons which they use on civilians to maintain power.
The special rapporteur was in Bangkok to address a parliamentary committee on security, he called on the Thai government to stop financial transactions that help supply weapons to Myanmar’s junta in line with a plan promoted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that sets out an end to violence as a first step toward peace.
In his 2023 report “The Billion Dollar Death Trade,” Andrews noted that Singapore had implemented a clear policy opposing the transfer of weapons to Myanmar.
Thai Baht – File Image
Thailand’s Banks Lacked Clear Policy
As a result, exports of weapons and related materials from Singapore-registered entities using the formal banking system dropped from almost U.S. $120 million in fiscal year 2022 to just over $10 million over the next 12 months.
However, he said Thailand had no explicit policy position opposing weapons transfer to the Myanmar Junta, which saw exports from Thai-registered entities more than double in 2023, from just over $60 million to nearly $130 million.
He called on Thai Government to conduct a thorough investigation into transfers as Singapore had done into its companies’ dealings.
Andrews told the the committee that five Thai commercial banks and Thai-based companies were assisting Myanmar’s junta obtain weapons, dual-technology items and jet fuel, enabling Military Junta to conduct atrocities against the people.
But said he had found no evidence that the Thai government was involved or was aware of the transactions or that Thai commercial banks had knowledge.
Photo courtesy of The Nation
Banks Condemn Myanmar Junta Violence
Meanwhile representatives from Thailand’s central bank, anti-money laundering office and the commercial banks named in the report were also present at the parliamentary meeting at government house in Bangkok.
A representative of the Bank of Thailand said officials were working with the commercial banks and the anti-money laundering office to make sure that enhanced oversight was properly practiced.
The Thai Bankers Association that was also at the parliamentary meeting said it did not have the means to investigate and monitor such irregularities beyond Thailand’s borders.
Mr. Pongsit Chaichatpornsuk, a Thai Bankers Association representative told the committee that If government security agencies tell us, we will stop transactions. We don’t support arms procurement by Myanmar Junta or any military government to violate human rights.
Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar and hosts many thousands of refugees fleeing conflict there, has tried to promote dialogue between Myanmar’s military rulers and opposition forces but no progress has been made.
This Article was first published in RFA
The Speaker of the National Assembly of South Korea said in a statement that an online petition calling for South Korea’s President Mr. Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment crashed due to the enormous number of individuals attempting to sign the petition. Saying the National Assembly would resolve the matter as quickly as possible.
Since the petition was launch on the National Assembly’s website on June 20, more than 811,000 people have signed it. The petition urges Parliament to introduce legislation to impeach President Yoon on the grounds that he is unfit for office.
Late on June 30, National Assembly Speaker Mr. Woo Won-shik issued an apology for the disturbance and stated that Parliament would take action to protect the public’s fundamental rights.
People attempting to access the petition on July 1 experienced delays of up to four hours. At one point, an error message indicated that more than 30,000 individuals were waiting to access the site.
South Korea’s Parliament Hesitant
The online petition accuses Yoon of corruption, escalating the risk of conflict with North Korea, and endangering South Koreans’ health by failing to prevent Japan from leaking treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant.
By law, Parliament must assign every petition signed by more than 50,000 people to a committee, which will then decide whether to put it to a vote in the assembly.
However, the opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in Parliament, is hesitant to turn the petition into an impeachment bill, according to media reports, with a spokesperson stating that the party has yet to address the topic.
The Parliament can impeach a president with a two-thirds majority. The Constitutional Court then deliberates the motion and decides whether to remove or reinstall the president.
Meanwhile, on Monday Reuters reported North Korea criticized a joint military exercise performed this month by South Korea, Japan, and the United States, according to official media, saying such drills demonstrate the three nations’ alliance has evolved into “the Asian version of NATO”.
On Thursday, the three countries began large-scale combined military drills named “Freedom Edge” featuring navy destroyers, fighter fighters, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, with the goal of strengthening defenses against missiles, submarines, and air strikes.
The drill was designed at a three-way meeting at Camp David last year to boost military cooperation amid concerns on the Korean peninsula caused by North Korea’s weapons testing.
Pyongyang will not overlook the strengthening of a military bloc led by the United States and its allies, and it would respond aggressively and decisively to defend regional peace, according to North Korea’s foreign ministry, as reported by KCNA.
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