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Reform UK Becomes Rishi Sunak’s Nightmare as it Surges in 2024 Election Polls

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Nigel Farage Reform UK
Nigel Farage Reform UK: CBBC Image

Reform UK has seen a huge rise in support after Nigel Farage became the party’s leader and declared his candidacy for MP. In a nightmare scenario for Rishi Sunak, five new opinion polls released tonight showed the right-wing party eroding Tory support across the country.

That means the Conservatives are at risk of losing even more seats than they would have otherwise, putting Labour on track for a massive Commons majority.

According to a Redfield and Winton Strategies poll, Reform is at 17%, only two points behind the Conservatives, who are at 19%. Support for reform has increased by 7 points since last week, to 15%. The Tories were on 23%, down one point.

According to pollsters Focaldata, Reform support increased by two points to 14%, while the Tories fell one point to 25%, and according to BMG Research, Reform is up 5 points to 16%, while Conservatives have dropped 4 points to 23%. Another poll released by Techne on Friday morning showed Reform up 3 points to 15%, the Tories down a point to 20%, and Labour down one point to 44%.

Farage to Lead Reform UK

All of the polls were conducted following Farage’s surprise announcement that he would succeed Richard Tice as Reform leader and run as the party’s candidate in Clacton.

They also gave Labour leads of 19 to 23 points, more than enough to guarantee the party a landslide victory on July 4. The figures are yet another crushing blow to Sunak’s prospects of pulling off a surprise victory, with polling day only four weeks away.

Prime Minister Sunak had believed that calling the surprise poll would give the Conservatives a chance at an unexpected comeback.

But those dreams are quickly vanishing, with the Conservatives on track for their worst election showing in more than a century.

Promised of tax cuts

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak appealed to British voters and his own party on Tuesday to offer him a lifeline in the U.K. election, promising to slash taxes and curb immigration if his Conservative Party is reelected on July 4.

With the Conservatives lagging the left-of-center Labour Party in opinion polls, Sunak said that “people are frustrated with our party and frustrated with me.” However, he maintained that the Conservatives are “the only party with big ideas to make this country a better place to live.”

Opponents claimed Sunak was making unrealistic and unaffordable promises in an attempt to avoid defeat.

The Tories’ manifesto, their primary package of pledges, was launched on Tuesday, a day after Sunak was forced to refute speculations that he could resign even before polling day, as the Conservatives are concerned about his weak campaign.

Sunak said he had not considered retiring and that he was “not going to stop fighting for people’s votes.”

Starmer will raise taxes

On July 4, British voters will pick politicians to fill all 650 House of Commons seats, and the leader of the party that can command a majority — either alone or in combination — will be named Prime Minister.

Sunak held the manifesto launch at the Silverstone motor racing circuit in central England, which hosts the British Grand Prix, and it could be one of his final significant chances to get his sputtering campaign back on track. His major argument was that a government led by Labour’s Keir Starmer would raise taxes while a Conservative government would decrease them.

In its manifesto, the party promised 17 billion pounds ($22 billion) in tax cuts by 2030, partly paid for by cutting welfare expenses. The biggest tax cut is a 2% drop in National Insurance, which employees pay to qualify for a state pension. The Conservative government has previously reduced it twice, from 12% to the current 8%.

Sunak stated that the Conservatives will pay for lower taxes by “controlling the unsustainable rise in working-age welfare that has taken off since the pandemic.”

The Labour Party claims that during the 14 years of Tory control, the tax burden reached its greatest level in decades. Labour campaign chairman Pat McFadden described the Conservative manifesto as “the most expensive panic attack in history.”

Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, expressed “a degree of skepticism” regarding the math underpinning the Conservative claims.

“Those are definite giveaways paid for by uncertain, unspecific and apparently victimless savings,” he stated.

Sunak’s surprise decision to call a summer election several months earlier than planned was part of his strategy to take the opposition off guard. However, the Conservatives have appeared off-balance since Sunak emerged outside 10 Downing Street in the rain on May 22 to proclaim the start of the campaign.

The return of Nigel Farage

The Conservatives were already on the defensive after losing two prime ministers in quick succession in 2022: Boris Johnson, who was ousted due to scandals, and Liz Truss, who shook the economy with radical tax cuts and lasted just seven weeks in power.

The party’s prospects deteriorated last week when populist firebrand Nigel Farage announced that he will run for Parliament as the leader of the right-wing party Reform U.K., promising to be a “bloody nuisance” to the established parties.

Farage has been touring the country, attempting to garner support with his anti-establishment and anti-immigrant rhetoric. On Tuesday, a 28-year-old man was detained after Farage was bombarded with construction debris while riding in an open-topped bus in Barnsley, northern England.

Following a campaign appearance last week, Farage was splashed with a milkshake.

Sunak faltered again last week when he went home early from commemorations in France marking the 80th anniversary of D-Day in order to resume campaigning. The photographs of centenarian foreign War II veterans and a slew of foreign dignitaries, including US President Joe Biden, attending the solemn event on Omaha Beach without him were a PR nightmare.

Sunak instantly realized his mistake and apologized.

According to Paul Goodman, a former Conservative politician and current member of the House of Lords, the irony is that, aside from the D-Day error, “the Conservatives have run a perfectly decent, conventional campaign,” yet have little to show for it.

“They’ve launched lots of policies, they’ve had some hits on Labour,” he stated. “Rishi Sunak performed well in the debate against Starmer last week.” “All of this seems to have made no difference.”

Sunak stated that the Conservatives will cut net immigration in half from its present level of approximately 700,000 people per year and would proceed with a contentious plan to send some asylum seekers who arrive in Britain by boat across the English Channel on a one-way voyage to Rwanda.

Sunak stated that if he wins the election, there will be a “relentless continuous process of permanently removing illegal migrants to Rwanda,” with the first flights departing in July.

Rwanda deportation flights have been repeatedly blocked by UK courts and may still be halted by the European Court of Human Rights. Sunak stated that he would “choose our security” over court directives, but he did not explicitly commit to leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court, as Conservative hardliners have requested.

Labour, seeking a return to power, is pursuing a cautious campaign based on the single word “change.” Starmer’s central theme, which has alarmed some in his left-of-center party, is that he has converted Labour from a high-taxing, big-spending party to one of the stable middle.

While public surveys showing Labour with a double-digit advantage may alter, John Curtice, a polling specialist at the University of Strathclyde, said Sunak faced a difficult challenge even before calling the election.

“Arguably the Tories’ days were numbered the moment that Liz Truss fouled up,” he stated. “Because no government that has presided over a market crisis has survived at the ballot box.”

Source: AP, Yahoo News

 

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U.N. Special Rapporteur Calls on Thailand’s Banks to Cut-Off Myanmar Junta

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UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar Tom Andrews speaks during a press conference after a meeting with Thailand's Parliamentary Committee

The U.N special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar has said the Bank of Thailand, commercial banks, and the anti-money laundering office are working on measures to stop the Myanmar Junta from acquiring weapons through Thailand’s banking system.

Tom Andrews the U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, said that some banks commercial in Thailand had aided Myanmar Junta’s by facilitating transactions that supplied military equipment to the Junta through the international banking system.

He called on the Bank of Thailand and financial institutions to do more to stop Myanmar’s junta acquiring weapons which they use on civilians to maintain power.

The special rapporteur was in Bangkok to address a parliamentary committee on security, he called on the Thai government to stop financial transactions that help supply weapons to Myanmar’s junta in line with a plan promoted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that sets out an end to violence as a first step toward peace.

In his 2023 report “The Billion Dollar Death Trade,” Andrews noted that Singapore had implemented a clear policy opposing the transfer of weapons to Myanmar.

Thailand's Banks

Thai Baht – File Image

Thailand’s Banks Lacked Clear Policy

As a result, exports of weapons and related materials from Singapore-registered entities using the formal banking system dropped from almost U.S. $120 million in fiscal year 2022 to just over $10 million over the next 12 months.

However, he said Thailand had no explicit policy position opposing weapons transfer to the Myanmar Junta, which saw exports from Thai-registered entities more than double in 2023, from just over $60 million to nearly $130 million.

He called on Thai Government to conduct a thorough investigation into transfers as Singapore had done into its companies’ dealings.

Andrews told the the committee that five Thai commercial banks and Thai-based companies were assisting Myanmar’s junta obtain weapons, dual-technology items and jet fuel, enabling Military Junta to conduct atrocities against the people.

But said he had found no evidence that the Thai government was involved or was aware of the transactions or that Thai commercial banks had knowledge.

Thailand's Banks

Photo courtesy of The Nation

Banks Condemn Myanmar Junta Violence

Meanwhile representatives from Thailand’s central bank, anti-money laundering office and the commercial banks named in the report were also present at the parliamentary meeting at government house in Bangkok.

A representative of the Bank of Thailand said officials were working with the commercial banks and the anti-money laundering office to make sure that enhanced oversight was properly practiced.

The Thai Bankers Association that was also at the parliamentary meeting said it did not have the means to investigate and monitor such irregularities beyond Thailand’s borders.

Mr. Pongsit Chaichatpornsuk, a Thai Bankers Association representative told the committee that If government security agencies tell us, we will stop transactions. We don’t support arms procurement by Myanmar Junta or any military government to violate human rights.

Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar and hosts many thousands of refugees fleeing conflict there, has tried to promote dialogue between Myanmar’s military rulers and opposition forces but no progress has been made.

This Article was first published in RFA

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People Rushing Sign Online Petition to Impeach South Korea’s President Crash Site

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South Korea's President

The Speaker of the National Assembly of South Korea said in a statement that an online petition calling for South Korea’s President Mr. Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment crashed due to the enormous number of individuals attempting to sign the petition. Saying the National Assembly would resolve the matter as quickly as possible.

Since the petition was launch on the National Assembly’s website on June 20, more than 811,000 people have signed it. The petition urges Parliament to introduce legislation to impeach President Yoon on the grounds that he is unfit for office.

Late on June 30, National Assembly Speaker Mr. Woo Won-shik issued an apology for the disturbance and stated that Parliament would take action to protect the public’s fundamental rights.

People attempting to access the petition on July 1 experienced delays of up to four hours. At one point, an error message indicated that more than 30,000 individuals were waiting to access the site.

South Korea’s Parliament Hesitant

The online petition accuses Yoon of corruption, escalating the risk of conflict with North Korea, and endangering South Koreans’ health by failing to prevent Japan from leaking treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant.

By law, Parliament must assign every petition signed by more than 50,000 people to a committee, which will then decide whether to put it to a vote in the assembly.

However, the opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in Parliament, is hesitant to turn the petition into an impeachment bill, according to media reports, with a spokesperson stating that the party has yet to address the topic.

The Parliament can impeach a president with a two-thirds majority. The Constitutional Court then deliberates the motion and decides whether to remove or reinstall the president.

Meanwhile, on Monday Reuters reported North Korea criticized a joint military exercise performed this month by South Korea, Japan, and the United States, according to official media, saying such drills demonstrate the three nations’ alliance has evolved into “the Asian version of NATO”.

On Thursday, the three countries began large-scale combined military drills named “Freedom Edge” featuring navy destroyers, fighter fighters, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, with the goal of strengthening defenses against missiles, submarines, and air strikes.

The drill was designed at a three-way meeting at Camp David last year to boost military cooperation amid concerns on the Korean peninsula caused by North Korea’s weapons testing.

Pyongyang will not overlook the strengthening of a military bloc led by the United States and its allies, and it would respond aggressively and decisively to defend regional peace, according to North Korea’s foreign ministry, as reported by KCNA.

 

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Joe Biden Assures Donors He Can Still Win Presidential Election Despite Debate Concerns

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Joe Biden Assures Donors he Can Still Win Presidential Election Despite Debate Concerns

(CTN News) – US President Joe Biden has convinced Democratic donors that he can still defeat Donald Trump in the November presidential election, following a dismal debate performance that raised concerns about his prospects.

On Saturday, the 81-year-old president attended a series of fundraising events in New York and New Jersey, defending his performance in CNN’s Presidential Debate.

On Thursday, Joe Biden conceded, “I didn’t have a great night, but neither did Trump” at one event.

“I promise you we’re going to win this election,” the politician declared.

Joe Biden’s debate performance was marked by difficult-to-follow and wobbly responses, generating further concerns among some Democrats about whether he is the ideal candidate to run in this high-stakes race.

Former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Joe Biden’s debate performance “wasn’t great,” while his former communications director, Kate Bedingfield, termed it “very disappointing.”

The president acknowledged the worry but committed to fighting harder.

New Jersey’s Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, attended the fundraiser alongside Mr. Biden and the First Lady, telling Mr. Biden, “We are all with you 1,000 percent.”

The Joe Biden team acknowledged that the debate did not go as planned but maintained he would not step aside for another nominee.

On Saturday, campaign chairwoman Jennifer O’Malley Dillon stated that internal post-debate polling revealed that “voters’ opinions were not changed”.

“It will not be the first time that overblown media narratives have driven temporary dips in the polls,” she told reporters.

Former President Barack Obama, a friend of Mr. Biden, admitted on social media that “bad debate nights happen”.

“This election is still a choice between someone who fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself,” said Mr. Obama.

Hours later, Mr Trump told his supporters that he saw the discussion as a “big victory” for his campaign.

“Joe Biden’s problem is not his age,” Trump, 78, added. “It is his competence. He’s quite incompetent.

Politicians were not the only ones who criticized Mr Biden’s performance.

A prominent editorial in the New York Times condemned his decision to run again as a “reckless gamble” and advised him to conduct some soul-searching this weekend.

It urged Democrats to “acknowledge that Joe Biden can’t continue his race and create a process to select someone more capable to stand in his place” .

Voters in the US have expressed misgivings about voting for any candidate after Thursday’s debate.

Lori Gregory, a long-time Democrat, told the BBC she “could not handle” watching the discussion, asking, “Is this the best our country can do?”

Republican Crystal Myers-Barber said it was “painful to watch,” but she also thought “Trump came across very level-headed and presidential, and Biden came across very weak.”

Democrat Shana Ziolko said she was “frustrated” by the debate and believed there was no obvious winner.

A post-debate poll conducted by liberal pollster Data for Progress revealed that 62% of potential voters who saw or read about the debate believed Trump won. Only 30% of those polled believed Mr Biden had won the debate.

Until more polling is done, fundraising could be another indicator of Joe Biden’s sustained popularity.

In a memo, chairwoman Jennifer O’Malley Dillon stated that the campaign had raised more than $27 million (£21.3 million) between the Thursday debate and Friday evening.

“After Thursday night’s debate, the Beltway class is counting Joe Biden out. “The data in battleground states, however, tells a different story,” she explained.

“This election was incredibly close before Thursday, and by every metric we’ve seen since, it remains just as close” , she commented.

Source: BBC

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