Politics
Thailand’s Pheu Thai Party Voices Dissolution Fears Over Winning Election

As Thailand’s largest opposition party travels across Thailand on the campaign trail the Pheu Thai is consider the political cost of victory in the May 14 election: The danger of dissolution for alleged breaching election laws.
Following the dissolution of another pro-democratic party after a remarkable rise in the 2019 elections due to violations of election laws, recent discussions at Pheu Thai’s strategy meetings touched on the need for “political insurance” to deal with such threats, according to multiple sources within the party.
“We cannot underestimate our adversaries [as they try] every which way to prevent us from forming a government,” said Pichai Naripthaphan, a former energy minister and vice chairman of the Pheu Thai party’s strategy committee, to Nikkei Asia.
He stated that the party requires at least 251 of the 500 seats up for grabs to develop “an electoral mandate to deal with this threat,” and that it aspires for 310 seats for more political security and to strengthen its hand in the final behind-the-scenes bargaining to form the next government after the elections.
Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled patriarch of the country’s most powerful political clan, will field 392 candidates for the 400 constituency seats and 100 candidates for the 100 “party-list” seats based on votes cast for each party.
According to opinion polls, the party is ahead of other major parties such as Palang Pracharath and Bhumjaithai. A poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration in early March found the party to have 49% support, which was echoed a few weeks later by a Suan Dusit Rajabhat University poll, which found Pheu Thai to have 46% support.
According to a report by Thai Enquirer, a local online news portal, a recent survey by Santi Baan, the special section of Thai police, predicted Pheu Thai will win 265 seats, a four-fold advantage over the next party, Bhumjaithai.
But there are threats hanging over Pheu Thai’s fate, which might result in the party’s dissolution under the country’s legal system.
Pheu Thai and Thaksin
At stake are Thaksin’s comments about Thai politics on the social networking site Clubhouse, as well as the participation of Nattawut Saikua, a fiery leader of the Pro-Thaksin “Red Shirts” political movement who served a jail term and is barred from politics, as a speaker at a Pheu Thai event.
Thaksin and Nattawut have both been accused of breaking Thailand’s peculiar election laws, which prohibit “outsiders” from participating in party politics. Members of the country’s royalist-military hard-right political camp have filed complaints against them with the elections commission, a supposedly neutral agency.
Thaksin and Nattawut may run afoul of the commission’s track record of generously exercising its powers and interpreting election rules as it sees suitable, as it did during the last elections in 2019. The commission’s targets are facing lawsuits at the Constitutional Court, another ostensibly independent body that has given harsher decisions against the pro-democracy side.
The results must be approved by the elections commission within 60 days of the voting. However, even after it has approved the results, the EC has the authority to pursue any political party in the new parliament based on any “new information” it receives regarding MPs allegedly breaching election regulations. As a result, even if Pheu Thai wins the election, it will face similar threats.
Elections commission a stacked deck
The elections commission, whose members Prime Minister Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha had chosen, used a previously undisclosed calculation to award parliamentary seats to minor, pro-military parties shortly after the votes concluded in 2019. It also dissolved the Future Forward Party, a newly created pro-youth party that came third on the strength of its pro-democracy agenda, for breaking election laws. This intervention paved the way for Prayuth, whose party finished second, to create his pro-military coalition.
The National Institute of Development Administration’s most recent opinion poll, released over the weekend, revealed that Pheu Thai received a 47.2% favourable rating, nearly on par with the March poll that identified it as the front-runner, indicating that its supporters were not abandoning the party due to such dissolution threats.
Nonetheless, senior Thai political watchers agree that Pheu Thai’s concern is not unfounded, given Thailand’s political history over the last two decades. Thaksin’s political parties have won every election since 2001, but they have all been demolished not by the ballot box, but by a powerful network of royalist-military institutions.
The anti-democracy actions have varied from two military coups in 2006 and 2014, to a “judicial coup” in December 2008, when a court delivered a hasty judgement to bring down a pro-Thaksin administration, to the dissolution of three pro-Thaksin parties.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a senior political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, believes a “repeat of the charade” is still possible, and Pheu Thai has reason to be concerned. “They have various buttons to push, and we know these referee agencies are biassed,” Thitinan remarked, referring to the elections commission.
Diplomats in Bangkok are paying attention to these “abnormal factors,” which Thailand has been unable to explain. “How big the margin of victory will be relevant in any attempts against Pheu Thai,” noted a Western diplomat. “Will they take a risk to overthrow a clear democratic mandate?”

Politics
Millennials in Canada Have Turned their Backs on Justin Trudeau

Justine Trudeau and his Liberal Party are currently engaged in a fierce battle for second place against Jagmeet Singh’s socialist NDP, as both parties find themselves trailing by 20 points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
A recent poll indicates that 38% of Canadians consider Trudeau to be the most ineffective leader the nation has encountered in over fifty years. An impressive 47% of Canadian Millennials indicated they would support Poilievre if an election were to take place today, while nearly half of all Canadians express a desire for an election to be called this year.
Pierre Poilievre’s strong appeal among young voters can be attributed primarily to economic factors: soaring inflation, a pressing cost-of-living crisis, and the challenge of housing affordability are pushing many away from the Liberals, who have held power for nearly nine years.
According to UnHeard, Millennials are increasingly distancing themselves from Trudeau due to his stringent measures aimed at controlling the internet to combat alleged disinformation, as well as his climate change initiatives, notably the carbon tax.

Protest in downtown Toronto against mass immigration on Canada Day – TNC Image
An increasing number of Canadians are becoming aware of Trudeau’s ineffective policies and his approach to mass immigration. This past summer, there was significant outrage among parents of teenagers and young adults as they observed their children remaining at home without jobs.
The primary concern stemmed from the fact that most low-skilled and entry-level positions were being filled by unskilled, temporary foreign workers, predominantly from India.
There has been a notable rise in criminal activities linked to international students and unvetted temporary residents who are becoming involved with Punjabi gangs in Canada, contributing to a surge in auto thefts nationwide.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are actively seeking to alter Trudeau’s approach to mass immigration and prioritize the construction of more housing should they come into power.
Significantly, Pierre Poilievre is perceived as more trustworthy than Trudeau, with over half of Canadians characterizing Poilievre as “open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions,” while only 39% share that sentiment regarding Trudeau.
The characteristics in question may shed light on Poilievre’s favorable polling, particularly among younger voters and women, who have historically leaned towards the Liberals or the NDP rather than the Conservatives.
The Liberal Party’s support has dwindled to an estimated 7% of Canadians, revealing a significant number of disillusioned voters eager for transformation. Poilievre is emerging as the type of leader that resonates with the desires of many Canadians.
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Politics
U.N. Special Rapporteur Calls on Thailand’s Banks to Cut-Off Myanmar Junta

The U.N special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar has said the Bank of Thailand, commercial banks, and the anti-money laundering office are working on measures to stop the Myanmar Junta from acquiring weapons through Thailand’s banking system.
Tom Andrews the U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, said that some banks commercial in Thailand had aided Myanmar Junta’s by facilitating transactions that supplied military equipment to the Junta through the international banking system.
He called on the Bank of Thailand and financial institutions to do more to stop Myanmar’s junta acquiring weapons which they use on civilians to maintain power.
The special rapporteur was in Bangkok to address a parliamentary committee on security, he called on the Thai government to stop financial transactions that help supply weapons to Myanmar’s junta in line with a plan promoted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that sets out an end to violence as a first step toward peace.
In his 2023 report “The Billion Dollar Death Trade,” Andrews noted that Singapore had implemented a clear policy opposing the transfer of weapons to Myanmar.

Thai Baht – File Image
Thailand’s Banks Lacked Clear Policy
As a result, exports of weapons and related materials from Singapore-registered entities using the formal banking system dropped from almost U.S. $120 million in fiscal year 2022 to just over $10 million over the next 12 months.
However, he said Thailand had no explicit policy position opposing weapons transfer to the Myanmar Junta, which saw exports from Thai-registered entities more than double in 2023, from just over $60 million to nearly $130 million.
He called on Thai Government to conduct a thorough investigation into transfers as Singapore had done into its companies’ dealings.
Andrews told the the committee that five Thai commercial banks and Thai-based companies were assisting Myanmar’s junta obtain weapons, dual-technology items and jet fuel, enabling Military Junta to conduct atrocities against the people.
But said he had found no evidence that the Thai government was involved or was aware of the transactions or that Thai commercial banks had knowledge.

Photo courtesy of The Nation
Banks Condemn Myanmar Junta Violence
Meanwhile representatives from Thailand’s central bank, anti-money laundering office and the commercial banks named in the report were also present at the parliamentary meeting at government house in Bangkok.
A representative of the Bank of Thailand said officials were working with the commercial banks and the anti-money laundering office to make sure that enhanced oversight was properly practiced.
The Thai Bankers Association that was also at the parliamentary meeting said it did not have the means to investigate and monitor such irregularities beyond Thailand’s borders.
Mr. Pongsit Chaichatpornsuk, a Thai Bankers Association representative told the committee that If government security agencies tell us, we will stop transactions. We don’t support arms procurement by Myanmar Junta or any military government to violate human rights.
Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar and hosts many thousands of refugees fleeing conflict there, has tried to promote dialogue between Myanmar’s military rulers and opposition forces but no progress has been made.
This Article was first published in RFA
Politics
People Rushing Sign Online Petition to Impeach South Korea’s President Crash Site

The Speaker of the National Assembly of South Korea said in a statement that an online petition calling for South Korea’s President Mr. Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment crashed due to the enormous number of individuals attempting to sign the petition. Saying the National Assembly would resolve the matter as quickly as possible.
Since the petition was launch on the National Assembly’s website on June 20, more than 811,000 people have signed it. The petition urges Parliament to introduce legislation to impeach President Yoon on the grounds that he is unfit for office.
Late on June 30, National Assembly Speaker Mr. Woo Won-shik issued an apology for the disturbance and stated that Parliament would take action to protect the public’s fundamental rights.
People attempting to access the petition on July 1 experienced delays of up to four hours. At one point, an error message indicated that more than 30,000 individuals were waiting to access the site.
South Korea’s Parliament Hesitant
The online petition accuses Yoon of corruption, escalating the risk of conflict with North Korea, and endangering South Koreans’ health by failing to prevent Japan from leaking treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant.
By law, Parliament must assign every petition signed by more than 50,000 people to a committee, which will then decide whether to put it to a vote in the assembly.
However, the opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in Parliament, is hesitant to turn the petition into an impeachment bill, according to media reports, with a spokesperson stating that the party has yet to address the topic.
The Parliament can impeach a president with a two-thirds majority. The Constitutional Court then deliberates the motion and decides whether to remove or reinstall the president.
Meanwhile, on Monday Reuters reported North Korea criticized a joint military exercise performed this month by South Korea, Japan, and the United States, according to official media, saying such drills demonstrate the three nations’ alliance has evolved into “the Asian version of NATO”.
On Thursday, the three countries began large-scale combined military drills named “Freedom Edge” featuring navy destroyers, fighter fighters, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, with the goal of strengthening defenses against missiles, submarines, and air strikes.
The drill was designed at a three-way meeting at Camp David last year to boost military cooperation amid concerns on the Korean peninsula caused by North Korea’s weapons testing.
Pyongyang will not overlook the strengthening of a military bloc led by the United States and its allies, and it would respond aggressively and decisively to defend regional peace, according to North Korea’s foreign ministry, as reported by KCNA.
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