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Thailands New Role with the South China Sea

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Naval War Ship in Oil Rich South China Sea

 

CHIANGRAI TIMES – When Thailand serves as the new coordinating country for Asean-China relations beginning July, expectations are extremely high that the country, which has an intimate tie with China, would be able to keep peace and stability through managing competing claims in the troubled South China Sea.

During the past three years (2009-2012) under the Philippine’s coordinating role, the tension in the mineral-rich sea has intensified raising serious concerns within Asean and the international community of possibility of armed conflicts. To prepare for their future engagement both within the bilateral and Asean context, Thailand and China have been quick to get together and positively respond to each other’s mutual security goals as if they were a long-standing alliance.

the stakes and motivation for conflict over the South China Sea

The high-power visit from all branches of Thai military top brasses to China recently – first in 15 years – was a show-case sending a strong message to the US and the region, Cambodia in particular, that the Thai-China defense and security ties are rock solid and must not be the subjection of speculations. In weeks and months, the two countries have to demonstrate in tangible ways delivering on their pledges and widen cooperation to maintain their special strategic partnership, otherwise it could be a marriage of convenience. Their policies and action – imagine or real – from now on would have a far-reaching ramification on the delicate Asean-China and intra-Asean relations.

During the four-eye meeting in Beijing between Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang Guanglie with the Thai counterpart, ACM Sukhupol Suwannathat, Army Commander in Chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha was tagged along to his delegation. The topic they discussed was two sensitive issues focusing on the South China Sea and the dispute between Thailand and Cambodia over the 12th Century Hindu Temple, known as Khao Praviharn/Phrea-Vihear. Both countries were very firm on each other’s support on their respective issues.

Given the high tension over South China Sea, especially the three-week stand-off between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoals or Huangyan as the Chinese called it, Beijing has tried hard to the non-claimant Asean members to distant them from the Philippine’s assertiveness. Manila has been very frustrated with the lack of Asean. As the Asean-China coordinator, Thailand is naturally the main focus of China’s diplomatic offensive.

While the Thai military leaders strongly backed China over a wide range of bilateral and regional issues, the Thai Foreign Ministry does not always see eyes to eyes with their approach of across-the-board support as the country’s foreign policy has to take into account a myriad of factors and on a case by case basis when decision is being made. With China and South China Sea, the implications are huge and multidimensional. Undoubtedly, Thailand remains ambivalent on the current the China-Philippine quagmire even after listening to the presentation in Bangkok by the Chinese diplomats at the end of April. China reaffirmed its sovereignty over the disputed island saying it has solid historical and legal basis and is in line with international law. For the time being, the Thai positions are rather simple: concerning parties in the dispute should settle their problems peacefully, working on the Regional Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea and most of all, Asean can facilitate the dialogue leading to eventual solutions.

China is very anxious to get Thailand on board as soon as possible for two reasons. First right off is to ensure that China is involved in the COC drafting with Asean as soon as possible. The Asean senior officials will meet again next week for the fifth time in Bandung, Indonesia to discuss a proposal by the Philippines to establish a Joint Cooperation Area as well as the principles and nature of dispute settlement mechanism before the Asean ministers adopt it in July. At the last meeting in Phnom Penh, Asean could not agree on these key COC elements. Truth be told, some Asean members want to bring in China, which expressed the interest to take part since last November, so that Asean and China could agree and eventually adopt the COC without delay. Both sides wasted ten years before agreeing on the guidelines last year leading to the present stage. However, the Philippines and Vietnam, the two strong-will claimants, want Asean to complete all “the possible desirable elements” before any meeting with the Chinese counterparts.

Secondly, China also understands well that the Thai military have little influence over the conduct of diplomacy, especially within the Asean context, except when they are dealing with the national security issues. As evident in the ongoing Thai-Cambodia, the military leaders have not complied fully with the decisions proposed by the Foreign Ministry. The failure to deploy the Indonesian Observer’s Team along the volatile border is a good illustration. It is imperative for China to garner the military’s support at the very beginning. One caveat is in order – the strong China-Thai security ties could be problematic when they are placed in the context of bilateral conflict with Cambodia coupling with the overlapping Asean roles of the two conflicting parties.

Lest we forget the current excellent relations China enjoys with Cambodia after Prime Minister Hun Sen’s policy of rapprochement at the end of 1999. Hun Sen has single-handedly crafted the Cambodia-China relations and transforms China into the country’s No. 1 friend within a mere decade, to fit into dual new strategic profiles he drew up for his country – a young medium-size tiger with the region’s fastest economic growth and a pro-active Asean member. The first objective could easily be attained with the ongoing China’s generous assistance and long-term support including influx of new investment. From 1994-2011, China invested US$8.8 billion in Cambodia, making it the largest investor as well as the biggest aid donor to the tune of US$2.1 billion since 1992. At the moment, Cambodia also has the region’s largest presence of Chinese immigrants, mainly businessmen, of nearly one million out of the 14-million local populations. For the latter’s goal, Hun Sen has already made a strong personnel imprint on the Asean agenda judging from the April summit. When the world’s leaders, including the US, China, Russia, attend the Seventh East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh in November under his tutelage, the region’s longest reigning leader will display his diplomatic finesse in boosting the Asean profile.

But Hun Sen’s outspokenness and the Thai-Cambodian conflict can get into the way, especially after the International Court of Justice in Hague comes up with a verdict later this year as it would affect the ground situation at the troubled border. The court’s outcome would swiftly put to test the triangular China-Thailand-Cambodia relations. When China’s two best Asean friends went to war using Chinese-made weapons, it could be a recipe for disaster. At the four-eye meeting with the Chinese leaders, Thailand took great pains in explaining in detail how the Chinese made BM-21 – the multiple rocket launchers – were used extensively and discriminately causing damages to civilian lives and properties across the border. Thailand relies on the US-made weapon systems which were equally lethal and effective. Unlike the Thai-China security ties, the Thai-US alliance lacks the concurrent interests even with the recent announced US pivot to Asia.

The question frequently asked today: Will Cambodia as the Asean chair and Thailand as the Asean-China coordinator together be able to contain the South China Sea debacle? It seems that the answer will depend on China’s reaction, in particular its ability to convince its two non-claimant Asean friends to settle conflict and improve relations to prevent any spilling effect on China’s greater stakes. – Kavi Chongkittavorn

 

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Trudeau’s Gun Grab Could Cost Taxpayers a Whopping $7 Billion

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Trudeau's Gun Grab
Trudeau plans to purchase 2,063 firearm from legal gun owners in Canada - Rebel News Image

A recent report indicates that since Trudeau’s announcement of his gun buyback program four years ago, almost none of the banned firearms have been surrendered.

The federal government plans to purchase 2,063 firearm models from retailers following the enactment of Bill C-21, which amends various Acts and introduces certain consequential changes related to firearms. It was granted royal assent on December 15 of last year.

This ban immediately criminalized the actions of federally-licensed firearms owners regarding the purchase, sale, transportation, importation, exportation, or use of hundreds of thousands of rifles and shotguns that were previously legal.

The gun ban focused on what it termed ‘assault-style weapons,’ which are, in reality, traditional semi-automatic rifles and shotguns that have enjoyed popularity among hunters and sport shooters for over a century.

In May 2020, the federal government enacted an Order-in-Council that prohibited 1,500 types of “assault-style” firearms and outlined specific components of the newly banned firearms. Property owners must adhere to the law by October 2023.

Trudeau’s Buyback Hasn’t Happened

“In the announcement regarding the ban, the prime minister stated that the government would seize the prohibited firearms, assuring that their lawful owners would be ‘grandfathered’ or compensated fairly.” “That hasn’t happened,” criminologist Gary Mauser told Rebel News.

Mauser projected expenses ranging from $2.6 billion to $6.7 billion. The figure reflects the compensation costs amounting to $756 million, as outlined by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).

“The projected expenses for gathering the illegal firearms are estimated to range from $1.6 billion to $7 billion.” “This range estimate increases to between $2.647 billion and $7 billion when compensation costs to owners are factored in,” Mauser stated.

Figures requested by Conservative MP Shannon Stubbs concerning firearms prohibited due to the May 1, 2020 Order In Council reveal that $72 million has been allocated to the firearm “buyback” program, yet not a single firearm has been confiscated to date.

In a recent revelation, Public Safety Canada disclosed that the federal government allocated a staggering $41,094,556, as prompted by an order paper question from Conservative Senator Don Plett last September, yet yielded no tangible outcomes.

An internal memo from late 2019 revealed that the Liberals projected their politically motivated harassment would incur a cost of $1.8 billion.

Enforcement efforts Questioned

By December 2023, estimates from TheGunBlog.ca indicate that the Liberals and RCMP had incurred or were responsible for approximately $30 million in personnel expenses related to the enforcement efforts. The union representing the police service previously stated that the effort to confiscate firearms is a “misdirected effort” aimed at ensuring public safety.

“This action diverts crucial personnel, resources, and funding from tackling the more pressing and escalating issue of criminal use of illegal firearms,” stated the National Police Federation (NPF).

The Canadian Sporting Arms & Ammunition Association (CSAAA), representing firearms retailers, has stated it will have “zero involvement” in the confiscation of these firearms. Even Canada Post held back from providing assistance due to safety concerns.

The consultant previously assessed that retailers are sitting on almost $1 billion worth of inventory that cannot be sold or returned to suppliers because of the Order-In-Council.

“Despite the ongoing confusion surrounding the ban, after four years, we ought to be able to address one crucial question.” Has the prohibition enhanced safety for Canadians? Mauser asks.

Illegally Obtained Firearms are the Problem

Statistics Canada reports a 10% increase in firearm-related violent crime between 2020 and 2022, rising from 12,614 incidents to 13,937 incidents. In that timeframe, the incidence of firearm-related violent crime increased from 33.7 incidents per 100,000 population in 2021 to 36.7 incidents the subsequent year.

“This marks the highest rate documented since the collection of comparable data began in 2009,” the criminologist explains.

Supplementary DataData indicates that firearm homicides have risen since 2020. “The issue lies not with lawfully-held firearms,” Mauser stated.

Firearms that have been banned under the Order-in-Council continue to be securely stored in the safes of their lawful owners. The individuals underwent a thorough vetting process by the RCMP and are subject to nightly monitoring to ensure there are no infractions that could pose a risk to public safety.

“The firearms involved in homicides were seldom legally owned weapons wielded by their rightful owners,” Mauser continues. The number of offenses linked to organized crime has surged from 4,810 in 2016 to a staggering 13,056 in 2020.

“If those in power … aim to diminish crime and enhance public safety, they ought to implement strategies that effectively focus on offenders and utilize our limited tax resources judiciously to reach these objectives,” he stated.

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Google’s Search Dominance Is Unwinding, But Still Accounting 48% Search Revenue

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Google

Google is so closely associated with its key product that its name is a verb that signifies “search.” However, Google’s dominance in that sector is dwindling.

According to eMarketer, Google will lose control of the US search industry for the first time in decades next year.

Google will remain the dominant search player, accounting for 48% of American search advertising revenue. And, remarkably, Google is still increasing its sales in the field, despite being the dominating player in search since the early days of the George W. Bush administration. However, Amazon is growing at a quicker rate.

google

Google’s Search Dominance Is Unwinding

Amazon will hold over a quarter of US search ad dollars next year, rising to 27% by 2026, while Google will fall even more, according to eMarketer.

The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the forecast.

Lest you think you’ll have to switch to Bing or Yahoo, this isn’t the end of Google or anything really near.

Google is the fourth-most valued public firm in the world. Its market worth is $2.1 trillion, trailing just Apple, Microsoft, and the AI chip darling Nvidia. It also maintains its dominance in other industries, such as display advertisements, where it dominates alongside Facebook’s parent firm Meta, and video ads on YouTube.

To put those “other” firms in context, each is worth more than Delta Air Lines’ total market value. So, yeah, Google is not going anywhere.

Nonetheless, Google faces numerous dangers to its operations, particularly from antitrust regulators.

On Monday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled that Google must open up its Google Play Store to competitors, dealing a significant blow to the firm in its long-running battle with Fortnite creator Epic Games. Google announced that it would appeal the verdict.

In August, a federal judge ruled that Google has an illegal monopoly on search. That verdict could lead to the dissolution of the company’s search operation. Another antitrust lawsuit filed last month accuses Google of abusing its dominance in the online advertising business.

Meanwhile, European regulators have compelled Google to follow tough new standards, which have resulted in multiple $1 billion-plus fines.

google

Pixa Bay

Google’s Search Dominance Is Unwinding

On top of that, the marketplace is becoming more difficult on its own.

TikTok, the fastest-growing social network, is expanding into the search market. And Amazon has accomplished something few other digital titans have done to date: it has established a habit.

When you want to buy anything, you usually go to Amazon, not Google. Amazon then buys adverts to push companies’ products to the top of your search results, increasing sales and earning Amazon a greater portion of the revenue. According to eMarketer, it is expected to generate $27.8 billion in search revenue in the United States next year, trailing only Google’s $62.9 billion total.

And then there’s AI, the technology that (supposedly) will change everything.

Why search in stilted language for “kendall jenner why bad bunny breakup” or “police moving violation driver rights no stop sign” when you can just ask OpenAI’s ChatGPT, “What’s going on with Kendall Jenner and Bad Bunny?” in “I need help fighting a moving violation involving a stop sign that wasn’t visible.” Google is working on exactly this technology with its Gemini product, but its success is far from guaranteed, especially with Apple collaborating with OpenAI and other businesses rapidly joining the market.

A Google spokeswoman referred to a blog post from last week in which the company unveiled ads in its AI overviews (the AI-generated text that appears at the top of search results). It’s Google’s way of expressing its ability to profit on a changing marketplace while retaining its business, even as its consumers steadily transition to ask-and-answer AI and away from search.

google

Google has long used a single catchphrase to defend itself against opponents who claim it is a monopoly abusing its power: competition is only a click away. Until recently, that seemed comically obtuse. Really? We are going to switch to Bing? Or Duck Duck Go? Give me a break.

But today, it feels more like reality.

Google is in no danger of disappearing. However, every highly dominating company faces some type of reckoning over time. GE, a Dow mainstay for more than a century, was broken up last year and is now a shell of its previous dominance. Sears declared bankruptcy in 2022 and is virtually out of business. US Steel, long the foundation of American manufacturing, is attempting to sell itself to a Japanese corporation.

Could we remember Google in the same way that we remember Yahoo or Ask Jeeves in decades? These next few years could be significant.

SOURCE | CNN

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The Supreme Court Turns Down Biden’s Government Appeal in a Texas Emergency Abortion Matter.

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(VOR News) – A ruling that prohibits emergency abortions that contravene the Supreme Court law in the state of Texas, which has one of the most stringent abortion restrictions in the country, has been upheld by the Supreme Court of the United States. The United States Supreme Court upheld this decision.

The justices did not provide any specifics regarding the underlying reasons for their decision to uphold an order from a lower court that declared hospitals cannot be legally obligated to administer abortions if doing so would violate the law in the state of Texas.

Institutions are not required to perform abortions, as stipulated in the decree. The common populace did not investigate any opposing viewpoints. The decision was made just weeks before a presidential election that brought abortion to the forefront of the political agenda.

This decision follows the 2022 Supreme Court ruling that ended abortion nationwide.

In response to a request from the administration of Vice President Joe Biden to overturn the lower court’s decision, the justices expressed their disapproval.

The government contends that hospitals are obligated to perform abortions in compliance with federal legislation when the health or life of an expectant patient is in an exceedingly precarious condition.

This is the case in regions where the procedure is prohibited. The difficulty hospitals in Texas and other states are experiencing in determining whether or not routine care could be in violation of stringent state laws that prohibit abortion has resulted in an increase in the number of complaints concerning pregnant women who are experiencing medical distress being turned away from emergency rooms.

The administration cited the Supreme Court’s ruling in a case that bore a striking resemblance to the one that was presented to it in Idaho at the beginning of the year. The justices took a limited decision in that case to allow the continuation of emergency abortions without interruption while a lawsuit was still being heard.

In contrast, Texas has been a vocal proponent of the injunction’s continued enforcement. Texas has argued that its circumstances are distinct from those of Idaho, as the state does have an exemption for situations that pose a significant hazard to the health of an expectant patient.

According to the state, the discrepancy is the result of this exemption. The state of Idaho had a provision that safeguarded a woman’s life when the issue was first broached; however, it did not include protection for her health.

Certified medical practitioners are not obligated to wait until a woman’s life is in imminent peril before they are legally permitted to perform an abortion, as determined by the state supreme court.

The state of Texas highlighted this to the Supreme Court.

Nevertheless, medical professionals have criticized the Texas statute as being perilously ambiguous, and a medical board has declined to provide a list of all the disorders that are eligible for an exception. Furthermore, the statute has been criticized for its hazardous ambiguity.

For an extended period, termination of pregnancies has been a standard procedure in medical treatment for individuals who have been experiencing significant issues. It is implemented in this manner to prevent catastrophic outcomes, such as sepsis, organ failure, and other severe scenarios.

Nevertheless, medical professionals and hospitals in Texas and other states with strict abortion laws have noted that it is uncertain whether or not these terminations could be in violation of abortion prohibitions that include the possibility of a prison sentence. This is the case in regions where abortion prohibitions are exceedingly restrictive.

Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which resulted in restrictions on the rights of women to have abortions in several Republican-ruled states, the Texas case was revisited in 2022.

As per the orders that were disclosed by the administration of Vice President Joe Biden, hospitals are still required to provide abortions in cases that are classified as dire emergency.

As stipulated in a piece of health care legislation, the majority of hospitals are obligated to provide medical assistance to patients who are experiencing medical distress. This is in accordance with the law.

The state of Texas maintained that hospitals should not be obligated to provide abortions throughout the litigation, as doing so would violate the state’s constitutional prohibition on abortions. In its January judgment, the 5th United States Circuit Court of Appeals concurred with the state and acknowledged that the administration had exceeded its authority.

SOURCE: AP

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