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China’s 6th Generation and Upcoming Combat Aircraft
(CTN News) – In previous articles, I recorded the advancement of combat aircraft in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and provided projections for near-term consequences.
Several established aircraft have attained milestones in recent years, and several prospective projects are projected to make an impact in the next years and into the second half of the decade.
However, PLA secrecy remains unique among the world’s major military forces, and it has only increased in the previous half-decade as geopolitical tensions have risen. This essay will summarize known indications and provide predictions for numerous planned projects.
The J-XD: China’s Next-Generation Fighter
The PLA’s sixth-generation manned fighter, also known as the next-generation manned fighter, is regarded as an established program of record that is currently being developed and is projected to be operational sometime this decade.
However, before debate on this project can begin, a stand-in title is required, as there is currently no consensus name within the Chinese language PLA observing community. I shall refer to this project as “J-XD” until a consensus name emerges to replace it.
J-XD is a short name that can be interpreted as a pinyin acronym. “XD” can refer to either “xīn dài” (new generation) or “xià dài” (next generation), both of which are appropriate titles.
J-XD also avoids adopting a numbered system that could lead to misunderstanding whether the aircraft is “sixth-generation” or “fifth-generation,” as Chinese military terminology often appears to employ both the local Chinese generation system and the Western generation system.
Given the usage of English words in an acronym for a Chinese project, using a name that contains “NGAD” (Next Generation Air Dominance, the designation given by the United States Air Force to their sixth-generation project) seems somewhat improper. J-XD also has the added benefit of paying respect to the stand-in moniker for J-20 (known in the 2000s as “J-XX”).
Current indicators for the J-XD are mostly unchanged from the previous years. Demonstrator test beds (possibly subscale) have been flown, and a stealthy, tailless flying wing/flying arrowhead airframe is one of the most plausible variants.
Fifth-Generation Fighters: J-20 and J-35/XY
The J-XD is almost certain to include next-generation subsystems and technology in propulsion, sensors, computers, and networking. It is expected to operate alongside future unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) or collaborative combat aircraft (CCAs).
Search for specific terms to find papers on airframe testing, engine development, and aerospace engineering relevant to J-XD development. State aircraft manufacturers and defense expos have exhibited generic renderings of next-generation fighters.
Unsurprisingly, more specific rumors or estimations about the J-XD’s subsystems, weaponry, and attributes remain elusive, even among the PLA watchers; yet, it is widely acknowledged that the J-XD is one of the PLA’s most important forthcoming projects. U.S. Air Force senior leaders have acknowledged China’s sixth-generation plans as rivals.
However, before the J-XD, the PLA is still developing and producing various active and powerful fifth-generation fighter types. The destinies of these fighters will also be determined by the outcome and trajectory of the J-XD, namely the procurement scale and schedule for each class.
The J-20 series is the premier PLA fifth-generation fighter family, with recent advances in production size and technological enhancements.
However, terminology must again be addressed. At the moment, “J-20” refers to the baseline model in production, which is powered by WS-10 engines (and Al-31 engines in the initial batch); this fighter is distinguished externally by its non-beaked nose and lack of a dorsal hump behind the canopy.
“J-20A” is the name of the enhanced variant in development (and potentially early production) that will be powered by more powerful WS-15 engines. The J-20A has multiple prototypes, each with a slightly beaked nose and a dorsal hump below the canopy to identify them.
Some “general knowledge” sources, such as Wikipedia, incorrectly refer to the J-20 and J-20A as “J-20A” and “J-20B,” respectively, which are not consensus names for the versions. This creates confusion.
According to estimates from think tanks and professional military organizations, approximately 200 J-20s will be produced by the end of 2023 or early 2024. These figures appear considerably outdated compared to rumors from the Chinese language PLA observing group. Indeed, the PLA-watching community estimates that the 200-airframe milestone was attained in late 2022 or early 2023.
Furthermore, it is expected that by 2022 or 2023, Chengdu’s annual manufacturing rate of J-20s will have reached three digits. This would allow China to equip three frontline PLA Air Force brigades yearly, corresponding to the number of new J-20 units being converted in recent years.
At the time of writing in mid-2024, I anticipate that the J-20 fleet size could reach 300 airframes. It should be noted that future J-20 production rates may vary (increase or decrease) as the program progresses.
PLA secrecy and the difficulty of obtaining consistent, high-quality satellite images mean that any “concrete” estimate of the J-20 fleet size is likely to be well off from facts on the ground at any one time, while it may serve as a helpful “minimum floor” estimate.
The new J-20A model is still in development, although unsubstantiated sources say it may be nearing early production. The J-20A prototype serial 2052, powered by WS-15 engines, will fly in mid-2023.
It is important to confirm whether the initial production batches will be powered by WS-10 or WS-15 engines. Production of the J-20A and J-20 will also overlap.
J-20A advancements must also be monitored, as the variant is rumored to include an overhaul of software, avionics, and sensor suites (more so than inter-batch advancements for existing J-20s), material and structural advancements with corresponding signature reduction benefits, as well as significant power and thermal management advances.
These enhancements will increase future development possibilities and enable a larger range of upgrades and payloads. The most obvious global reference for the J-20A is the TR3 variant and Block 4 upgrade for the F-35 family.
Notably, the dual seat “J-20S” (also known as the “J-20AS” or “J-20B”) is now assumed to be a technology demonstrator for the J-20A variant to strengthen and accelerate development efforts. However, developing a production model for the twin-seat “J-20S” cannot be ruled out in the future.
The J-35/XY/FC-31 derivative family is the other major Chinese fifth-generation fighter program. The carrier-borne J-35/XY has been flying in prototype form since 2021.
Mockups have been observed aboard the catapult-equipped CV-18 Fujian (which recently began sea trials) and the CV-16 Liaoning, which may precede flight testing aboard the respective carriers.
Installing a J-35 mockup on the Liaoning is crucial as it confirms the fighter’s compatibility with the PLA Navy’s ski jump carriers (the Liaoning and CV-17 Shandong). This can considerably enhance the capability and future relevance of both ships.
The J-35 is slated to undergo carrier flight testing shortly, with initial production beginning within the next several years. There are also indications that a “J-31” produced from the FC-31 demonstrator for PLA usage (or possibly for an export buyer) may have recently flown; however, this has not been confirmed.
It is unknown how a hypothetical “J-31” fits into the framework of the PLA’s relatively large-scale procurement of J-20 family aircraft, let alone the future J-XD and expected UCAVs/CCAs.
The H-20 Stealth Bomber
Compared to fighter projects such as the J-XD, J-20, and J-35, the status of the much-rumored and anticipated H-20 stealth bomber has become far less clear in recent years. While there are infrequent public references to the H-20’s development, there have been some reports in recent months that the H-20 project may not be pursued in the previously agreed-upon form of a stealthy flying wing bomber.
This is not wholly unique, as the changing strategic environment over the last half-decade may have resulted in adjustments to multiple initiatives and their associated priorities, causing public knowledge of the project to remain in limbo.
We’ve seen a similar level of secrecy around the future of China’s carrier procurement outside Fujian. However, the H-20’s high-profile character disclosed as early as the late 2010s, has created a greater tangible expectation than other previous projects.
At this point, the condition and forecast of H-20 are unknown. It may still be an active project, or it may have undergone significant alterations and will emerge in a completely different form later than predicted. It may also shortly have aspects of its role assigned to other systems, such as UCAVs/CCAs.
Interestingly, some speculations suggest that the J-XD is a higher-priority project than the H-20. However, without context or explanation, this is impossible to support.
The PLA’s pursuit of high-end UCAVs is well established, with the most well-known model being the stealthy flying wing GJ-11. The program’s status (both in development and production) is unknown; however, a few airframes may be in advanced testing.
A carrier-based stealthy flying wing UCAV (perhaps evolved from GJ-11) is projected to appear, with a mockup sighted on the PLA Navy carrier in Wuhan and a possible new airframe variation emerging within the previous year. Several flying-wing UAV platforms exist, with many more being developed secretly and without public knowledge.
Chinese defense expos like the Zhuhai Airshow have showcased air-to-air CCA designs. However, these are similar to existing CCA projects worldwide. More advanced models for PLA usage are presumably in secretive development.
Because of the lower profile and more compact nature of many UCAVs and CCAs and the greater inherent PLA secrecy, several different UCAV and CCA concepts are likely in development and testing, with their public emergence occurring only in the late stages of development or even introduction into service.
PLA UCAVs and CCAs are expected to be integrated into the future J-XD fighter, making it compatible with existing fifth-generation fighters like the J-20 and J-35 and 4.5-generation fighters like the J-16 and J-10C with necessary upgrades.
The future direction and shape of PLA high-end UCAV and CCA procurement remain among the most significant unknowns in tracking future PLA combat aircraft.
At this point, China’s long arc of combat aircraft (particularly manned fighter aircraft) development has placed it in the same league as leading aerospace powers, even when a few remaining industry domains (such as advanced turbofans) have yet to catch up or scale.
The overall level of improvement complicates forecasts for prospective PLA combat aircraft projects, as there are no current equivalent platforms to guide public conjecture.
The J-XD and related future PLA UCAV and CCA initiatives will emerge alongside other global projects in very unexplored waters. They may prove to be more exciting than previous PLA aerospace monitoring efforts and more novel than past global military aerospace tracking since the Cold War.
News
Trudeau’s Gun Grab Could Cost Taxpayers a Whopping $7 Billion
A recent report indicates that since Trudeau’s announcement of his gun buyback program four years ago, almost none of the banned firearms have been surrendered.
The federal government plans to purchase 2,063 firearm models from retailers following the enactment of Bill C-21, which amends various Acts and introduces certain consequential changes related to firearms. It was granted royal assent on December 15 of last year.
This ban immediately criminalized the actions of federally-licensed firearms owners regarding the purchase, sale, transportation, importation, exportation, or use of hundreds of thousands of rifles and shotguns that were previously legal.
The gun ban focused on what it termed ‘assault-style weapons,’ which are, in reality, traditional semi-automatic rifles and shotguns that have enjoyed popularity among hunters and sport shooters for over a century.
In May 2020, the federal government enacted an Order-in-Council that prohibited 1,500 types of “assault-style” firearms and outlined specific components of the newly banned firearms. Property owners must adhere to the law by October 2023.
Trudeau’s Buyback Hasn’t Happened
“In the announcement regarding the ban, the prime minister stated that the government would seize the prohibited firearms, assuring that their lawful owners would be ‘grandfathered’ or compensated fairly.” “That hasn’t happened,” criminologist Gary Mauser told Rebel News.
Mauser projected expenses ranging from $2.6 billion to $6.7 billion. The figure reflects the compensation costs amounting to $756 million, as outlined by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).
“The projected expenses for gathering the illegal firearms are estimated to range from $1.6 billion to $7 billion.” “This range estimate increases to between $2.647 billion and $7 billion when compensation costs to owners are factored in,” Mauser stated.
Figures requested by Conservative MP Shannon Stubbs concerning firearms prohibited due to the May 1, 2020 Order In Council reveal that $72 million has been allocated to the firearm “buyback” program, yet not a single firearm has been confiscated to date.
In a recent revelation, Public Safety Canada disclosed that the federal government allocated a staggering $41,094,556, as prompted by an order paper question from Conservative Senator Don Plett last September, yet yielded no tangible outcomes.
An internal memo from late 2019 revealed that the Liberals projected their politically motivated harassment would incur a cost of $1.8 billion.
Enforcement efforts Questioned
By December 2023, estimates from TheGunBlog.ca indicate that the Liberals and RCMP had incurred or were responsible for approximately $30 million in personnel expenses related to the enforcement efforts. The union representing the police service previously stated that the effort to confiscate firearms is a “misdirected effort” aimed at ensuring public safety.
“This action diverts crucial personnel, resources, and funding from tackling the more pressing and escalating issue of criminal use of illegal firearms,” stated the National Police Federation (NPF).
The Canadian Sporting Arms & Ammunition Association (CSAAA), representing firearms retailers, has stated it will have “zero involvement” in the confiscation of these firearms. Even Canada Post held back from providing assistance due to safety concerns.
The consultant previously assessed that retailers are sitting on almost $1 billion worth of inventory that cannot be sold or returned to suppliers because of the Order-In-Council.
“Despite the ongoing confusion surrounding the ban, after four years, we ought to be able to address one crucial question.” Has the prohibition enhanced safety for Canadians? Mauser asks.
Illegally Obtained Firearms are the Problem
Statistics Canada reports a 10% increase in firearm-related violent crime between 2020 and 2022, rising from 12,614 incidents to 13,937 incidents. In that timeframe, the incidence of firearm-related violent crime increased from 33.7 incidents per 100,000 population in 2021 to 36.7 incidents the subsequent year.
“This marks the highest rate documented since the collection of comparable data began in 2009,” the criminologist explains.
Supplementary DataData indicates that firearm homicides have risen since 2020. “The issue lies not with lawfully-held firearms,” Mauser stated.
Firearms that have been banned under the Order-in-Council continue to be securely stored in the safes of their lawful owners. The individuals underwent a thorough vetting process by the RCMP and are subject to nightly monitoring to ensure there are no infractions that could pose a risk to public safety.
“The firearms involved in homicides were seldom legally owned weapons wielded by their rightful owners,” Mauser continues. The number of offenses linked to organized crime has surged from 4,810 in 2016 to a staggering 13,056 in 2020.
“If those in power … aim to diminish crime and enhance public safety, they ought to implement strategies that effectively focus on offenders and utilize our limited tax resources judiciously to reach these objectives,” he stated.
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Google’s Search Dominance Is Unwinding, But Still Accounting 48% Search Revenue
Google is so closely associated with its key product that its name is a verb that signifies “search.” However, Google’s dominance in that sector is dwindling.
According to eMarketer, Google will lose control of the US search industry for the first time in decades next year.
Google will remain the dominant search player, accounting for 48% of American search advertising revenue. And, remarkably, Google is still increasing its sales in the field, despite being the dominating player in search since the early days of the George W. Bush administration. However, Amazon is growing at a quicker rate.
Google’s Search Dominance Is Unwinding
Amazon will hold over a quarter of US search ad dollars next year, rising to 27% by 2026, while Google will fall even more, according to eMarketer.
The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the forecast.
Lest you think you’ll have to switch to Bing or Yahoo, this isn’t the end of Google or anything really near.
Google is the fourth-most valued public firm in the world. Its market worth is $2.1 trillion, trailing just Apple, Microsoft, and the AI chip darling Nvidia. It also maintains its dominance in other industries, such as display advertisements, where it dominates alongside Facebook’s parent firm Meta, and video ads on YouTube.
To put those “other” firms in context, each is worth more than Delta Air Lines’ total market value. So, yeah, Google is not going anywhere.
Nonetheless, Google faces numerous dangers to its operations, particularly from antitrust regulators.
On Monday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled that Google must open up its Google Play Store to competitors, dealing a significant blow to the firm in its long-running battle with Fortnite creator Epic Games. Google announced that it would appeal the verdict.
In August, a federal judge ruled that Google has an illegal monopoly on search. That verdict could lead to the dissolution of the company’s search operation. Another antitrust lawsuit filed last month accuses Google of abusing its dominance in the online advertising business.
Meanwhile, European regulators have compelled Google to follow tough new standards, which have resulted in multiple $1 billion-plus fines.
Google’s Search Dominance Is Unwinding
On top of that, the marketplace is becoming more difficult on its own.
TikTok, the fastest-growing social network, is expanding into the search market. And Amazon has accomplished something few other digital titans have done to date: it has established a habit.
When you want to buy anything, you usually go to Amazon, not Google. Amazon then buys adverts to push companies’ products to the top of your search results, increasing sales and earning Amazon a greater portion of the revenue. According to eMarketer, it is expected to generate $27.8 billion in search revenue in the United States next year, trailing only Google’s $62.9 billion total.
And then there’s AI, the technology that (supposedly) will change everything.
Why search in stilted language for “kendall jenner why bad bunny breakup” or “police moving violation driver rights no stop sign” when you can just ask OpenAI’s ChatGPT, “What’s going on with Kendall Jenner and Bad Bunny?” in “I need help fighting a moving violation involving a stop sign that wasn’t visible.” Google is working on exactly this technology with its Gemini product, but its success is far from guaranteed, especially with Apple collaborating with OpenAI and other businesses rapidly joining the market.
A Google spokeswoman referred to a blog post from last week in which the company unveiled ads in its AI overviews (the AI-generated text that appears at the top of search results). It’s Google’s way of expressing its ability to profit on a changing marketplace while retaining its business, even as its consumers steadily transition to ask-and-answer AI and away from search.
Google has long used a single catchphrase to defend itself against opponents who claim it is a monopoly abusing its power: competition is only a click away. Until recently, that seemed comically obtuse. Really? We are going to switch to Bing? Or Duck Duck Go? Give me a break.
But today, it feels more like reality.
Google is in no danger of disappearing. However, every highly dominating company faces some type of reckoning over time. GE, a Dow mainstay for more than a century, was broken up last year and is now a shell of its previous dominance. Sears declared bankruptcy in 2022 and is virtually out of business. US Steel, long the foundation of American manufacturing, is attempting to sell itself to a Japanese corporation.
SOURCE | CNN
News
The Supreme Court Turns Down Biden’s Government Appeal in a Texas Emergency Abortion Matter.
(VOR News) – A ruling that prohibits emergency abortions that contravene the Supreme Court law in the state of Texas, which has one of the most stringent abortion restrictions in the country, has been upheld by the Supreme Court of the United States. The United States Supreme Court upheld this decision.
The justices did not provide any specifics regarding the underlying reasons for their decision to uphold an order from a lower court that declared hospitals cannot be legally obligated to administer abortions if doing so would violate the law in the state of Texas.
Institutions are not required to perform abortions, as stipulated in the decree. The common populace did not investigate any opposing viewpoints. The decision was made just weeks before a presidential election that brought abortion to the forefront of the political agenda.
This decision follows the 2022 Supreme Court ruling that ended abortion nationwide.
In response to a request from the administration of Vice President Joe Biden to overturn the lower court’s decision, the justices expressed their disapproval.
The government contends that hospitals are obligated to perform abortions in compliance with federal legislation when the health or life of an expectant patient is in an exceedingly precarious condition.
This is the case in regions where the procedure is prohibited. The difficulty hospitals in Texas and other states are experiencing in determining whether or not routine care could be in violation of stringent state laws that prohibit abortion has resulted in an increase in the number of complaints concerning pregnant women who are experiencing medical distress being turned away from emergency rooms.
The administration cited the Supreme Court’s ruling in a case that bore a striking resemblance to the one that was presented to it in Idaho at the beginning of the year. The justices took a limited decision in that case to allow the continuation of emergency abortions without interruption while a lawsuit was still being heard.
In contrast, Texas has been a vocal proponent of the injunction’s continued enforcement. Texas has argued that its circumstances are distinct from those of Idaho, as the state does have an exemption for situations that pose a significant hazard to the health of an expectant patient.
According to the state, the discrepancy is the result of this exemption. The state of Idaho had a provision that safeguarded a woman’s life when the issue was first broached; however, it did not include protection for her health.
Certified medical practitioners are not obligated to wait until a woman’s life is in imminent peril before they are legally permitted to perform an abortion, as determined by the state supreme court.
The state of Texas highlighted this to the Supreme Court.
Nevertheless, medical professionals have criticized the Texas statute as being perilously ambiguous, and a medical board has declined to provide a list of all the disorders that are eligible for an exception. Furthermore, the statute has been criticized for its hazardous ambiguity.
For an extended period, termination of pregnancies has been a standard procedure in medical treatment for individuals who have been experiencing significant issues. It is implemented in this manner to prevent catastrophic outcomes, such as sepsis, organ failure, and other severe scenarios.
Nevertheless, medical professionals and hospitals in Texas and other states with strict abortion laws have noted that it is uncertain whether or not these terminations could be in violation of abortion prohibitions that include the possibility of a prison sentence. This is the case in regions where abortion prohibitions are exceedingly restrictive.
Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which resulted in restrictions on the rights of women to have abortions in several Republican-ruled states, the Texas case was revisited in 2022.
As per the orders that were disclosed by the administration of Vice President Joe Biden, hospitals are still required to provide abortions in cases that are classified as dire emergency.
As stipulated in a piece of health care legislation, the majority of hospitals are obligated to provide medical assistance to patients who are experiencing medical distress. This is in accordance with the law.
The state of Texas maintained that hospitals should not be obligated to provide abortions throughout the litigation, as doing so would violate the state’s constitutional prohibition on abortions. In its January judgment, the 5th United States Circuit Court of Appeals concurred with the state and acknowledged that the administration had exceeded its authority.
SOURCE: AP
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