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Four Reasons Why Economists are Sceptical about Thailand

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Downtown Bangkok, Thailand

 

BANGKOK – The good news for Thailand: it has just escaped the mini-recession it suffered earlier this year, notching annual gross domestic product growth of 2.7 per cent in the third quarter, according to numbers published on Monday.

What’s more, it turns out it never even went into recession after all: it has revised its second quarter numbers upwards, so that it registered zero quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rather than a 0.3 per cent fall.

Now the bad news: many analysts have reacted sourly to the latest data from southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which is a bellwether of global demand for manufactured goods and is forecast by Barclays to grow at 3 per cent this year and 4.8 per cent next.

Here are four reasons why economists are down on an emerging market growth story that superficially looks solid enough – particularly when compared with some of its spluttering western peer.

1. Growth is being buoyed partly by falling demand for imports, which Tony Nafte, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets senior economist, calls “a sign of weakness not strength”, since it reflects a slump in domestic demand. Household consumption dropped 1.2 per cent in the third quarter, reflecting the end of a popular tax break on new car purchases. CLSA estimates that if imports had held up during July to September, instead of declining, it would have wiped out quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 1.3 per cent. As bank lending to individuals falls and the central bank presses to bring down household debt levels standing at about 80 per cent of GDP, it’s hard to see an immediate recovery in consumer spending.

2. Good news on exports isn’t quite as great as it might appear. While net exports of goods and services from Thailand’s hard disc-to-cars manufacturing sector soared 18.6 per cent in the third quarter, this was on the back of a 6 per cent decline the previous quarter – and in the context of a longer-term recovery from the damage caused to many factories by the 2011 floods. What’s more, economists say exporters in Thailand – many of which are not at the cutting edge technologically and logistically – remain vulnerable to weakening global demand, domestic capacity constraints and the development of sleeker products elsewhere. ANZ bank points also to the warning sign of six successive months of industrial contraction registered between April and September: a sign of problems ranging from concerns about a new beer tax levy, to an outbreak of a virulent shrimp disease.

3. Another trend propping up Thailand’s continued economic expansion is higher government spending. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration has spread around money on a multibillion-dollar rice subsidy scheme and a government pay bill that rose almost 8 per cent in the third quarter. While Thailand has plentiful foreign exchange reserves, the largesse is proving expensive, with the rice programme alone costing $4bn a year by official estimates and almost twice as much according to some critics. The bind for the government is that there doesn’t seem an easy way out of this ad hoc stimulus programme, particularly as investment dropped 6.5 per cent during the third quarter. As Capital Economics puts it: “With the private sector struggling, the onus is on the government to spur growth.”

4. Thailand’s apparently incurable political malaise has returned, with a wave of street protests this month reminding people of the 2010 battles that paralysed parts of Bangkok for two months. The Senate’s decision last week to throw out an amnesty bill that could have allowed the return to Thailand of fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – Ms Yingluck’s brother – has cooled the situation a little for now, but many observers expect the next round of this 12-year-old political battle to start soon. Even before the latest flare-up, political fights had held back a 2tn baht infrastructural investment bill. Many people across the political spectrum agree Thailand urgently needs better roads, railways and ports, especially if it is to realise its vision of becoming a hub for trade between China and the 10 southeast Asian countries that make up the Asean grouping. But the opposition Democrats say the Yingluck government’s strategy for how to do this is ill-directed and should be subject to much greater parliamentary oversight. By Michael Peel in Bangkok

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PepsiCo Reduces Revenue Projections As North American Snacks And Key International Markets Underperform.

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(VOR News) – In the third quarter of this year, Pepsi’s net income was $2.93 billion, which is equivalent to $2.13 per share. This was attributed to the company.

This is in stark contrast to net income of $3.09 billion, which is equivalent to $2.24 per share, during the same period in the previous year. The company’s earnings per share were $2.31 when expenses were excluded.

Net sales decreased by 0.6%, totaling $23.32 billion. Organic sales increased by 1.3% during the quarter when the effects of acquisitions, divestitures, and currency changes are excluded.

Pepsi’s beverage sales fell this quarter.

The most recent report indicates that the beverage and food sectors of the organization experienced a 2% decline in volume. Consumers of all income levels are demonstrating a change in their purchasing habits, as indicated by CEOs’ statements from the previous quarter.

Pepsi’s entire volume was adversely affected by the lackluster demand they encountered in North America. An increasing number of Americans are becoming more frugal, reducing the number of snacks they ingest, and reducing the number of times they purchase at convenience stores.

Furthermore, Laguarta observed that the increase in sales was partially attributed to the election that occurred in Mexico during the month of June.

The most significant decrease in volume was experienced by Quaker Foods North America, which was 13%. In December, the company announced its initial recall in response to a potential salmonella infection.

Due to the probability of an illness, the recall was extended in January. Pepsi officially closed a plant that was implicated in the recalls in June, despite the fact that manufacturing had already been halted.

Jamie Caulfield, the Chief Financial Officer of Pepsi and Laguarta, has indicated that the recalls are beginning to have a lessening effect.

Frito-Lay experienced a 1.5% decline in volume in North America. The company has been striving to improve the value it offers to consumers and the accessibility of its snack line, which includes SunChips, Cheetos, and Stacy’s pita chips, in the retail establishments where it is sold.

Despite the fact that the category as a whole has slowed down in comparison to the results of previous years, the level of activity within the division is progressively increasing.

Pepsi executives issued a statement in which they stated that “Salty and savory snacks have underperformed year-to-date after outperforming packaged food categories in previous years.”

Pepsi will spend more on Doritos and Tostitos in the fall and winter before football season.

The company is currently promoting incentive packets for Tostitos and Ruffles, which contain twenty percent more chips than the standard package.

Pepsi is expanding its product line in order to more effectively target individuals who are health-conscious. The business announced its intention to acquire Siete Foods for a total of $1.2 billion approximately one week ago. The restaurant serves Mexican-American cuisine, which is typically modified to meet the dietary needs of a diverse clientele.

The beverage segment of Pepsi in North America experienced a three percent decrease in volume. Despite the fact that the demand for energy drinks, such as Pepsi’s Rockstar, has decreased as a result of consumers visiting convenience stores, the sales of well-known brands such as Gatorade and Pepsi have seen an increase throughout the quarter.

Laguarta expressed his opinion to the analysts during the company’s conference call, asserting, “I am of the opinion that it is a component of the economic cycle that we are currently experiencing, and that it will reverse itself in the future, once consumers feel better.”

Additionally, it has been noted that the food and beverage markets of South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa have experienced a decline in sales volume. The company cut its forecast for organic revenue for the entire year on Tuesday due to the business’s second consecutive quarter of lower-than-anticipated sales.

The company’s performance during the quarter was adversely affected by the Quaker Foods North America recalls, the decrease in demand in the United States, and the interruptions that occurred in specific international markets, as per the statements made by Chief Executive Officer Ramon Laguarta.

Pepsi has revised its forecast for organic sales in 2024, shifting from a 4% growth rate to a low single-digit growth rate. The company reiterated its expectation that the core constant currency profitability per share will increase by a minimum of 8% in comparison to the previous year.

The company’s shares declined by less than one percent during premarket trading. The following discrepancies between the company’s report and the projections of Wall Street were identified by LSEG in a survey of analysts:

SOURCE: CNBC

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Old National Bank And Infosys Broaden Their Strategic Partnership.

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Old National Bank And Infosys Broaden Their Strategic Partnership.

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(VOR News) – Old National Bank, a commercial bank with its headquarters in the Midwest, and Infosys, a firm that specializes in information technology, have recently entered into a strategic expansion of their link, which has been in place for the past four years.

This expansion is more likely to take place sooner rather than later, with the likelihood being higher.

For the purpose of making it possible for Old National Bank to make use of the services, solutions, and platforms that are offered by Infosys, the objective of this expansion is to make it possible for the bank to transform its operations and processes through the application of automation and GenAI, as well as to change significant business areas.

This lets the bank leverage Infosys’ services, solutions, and platforms.

Old National Bank Chairman and CEO Jim Ryan said, “At Old National, we are committed to creating exceptional experiences for both our customers and our fellow employees.”

This statement is applicable to Old National Bank. Infosys is carefully managing the business process innovations that it is putting us through, putting a strong emphasis on efficiency and value growth throughout the process to ensure that it is carried out efficiently.

This is a routine occurrence throughout the entire operation. Because of Infosys’ dedication to our development and success, we are incredibly appreciative of the assistance they have provided.

Old National has been receiving assistance from Infosys in the process of updating its digital environment since the year 2020, according to the aforementioned company.

Ever since that time, the company has been providing assistance. The provision of this assistance has been accomplished through the utilization of a model that is not only powerful but also capable of functioning on its own power.

Infosys currently ranks Old National thirty-first out of the top thirty US banks.

This ranking is based on the fact that Old National is the nation’s largest banking corporation.

It is estimated that the total value of the company’s assets is approximately fifty-three billion dollars, while the assets that are currently being managed by the organization are valued at thirty billion dollars.

Dennis Gada, the Executive Vice President and Global Head of Banking and Financial Services, stated that “Old National Bank and Infosys possess a robust cultural and strategic alignment in the development, management, and enhancement of enterprise-scale solutions to transform the bank’s operations and facilitate growth.”

This remark referenced the exceptional cultural and strategic synergy between the two organizations. Dennis Gada is the one who asserted this claim. This was articulated explicitly concerning the exceptional cultural congruence and strategy alignment of the two organizations.

We are pleased to announce that the implementation of Infosys Topaz will substantially expedite the transformation of Old National Bank’s business processes and customer service protocols. We are exceedingly enthusiastic about this matter. We are quite thrilled about this specific component of the scenario.

Medium-sized banks operating regionally will continue to benefit from our substantial expertise in the sector, technology, and operations. This specific market segment of Infosys will persist in benefiting from our extensive experience. This phenomenon will enable this market sector to sustain substantial growth and efficiency benefits.

SOURCE: THBL

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American Water, The Largest Water Utility In US, Is Targeted By A Cyberattack

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Qantas Airways Apologizes After R-Rated Film Reportedly Airs On Every Screen During Flight

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American Water, The Largest Water Utility In US, Is Targeted By A Cyberattack

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water

The largest regulated water and wastewater utility company in the United States stated Monday that it had been the target of a cyberattack, forcing the company to halt invoicing to consumers.

water

American Water, The Largest Water Utility In US, Is Targeted By A Cyberattack

American Water, based in New Jersey and serving over 14 million people in 14 states and 18 military facilities, said it learned of the unauthorized activity on Thursday and quickly took precautions, including shutting down certain systems. The business does not believe the attack had an impact on its facilities or operations and said employees were working “around the clock” to determine the origin and scale of the attack.

water

The corporation stated that it has alerted legal enforcement and is cooperating with them. It also stated that consumers will not be charged late fees while its systems are unavailable.

According to their website, American Water operates over 500 water and wastewater systems in around 1,700 communities across California, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.

SOURCE | AP

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