Politics
France’s Marine Le Pen Projected to Win Snap Election
France’s National Rally, led by firebrand Marine Le Pen, is expected to win a sudden election called by President Emmanuel Macron.
Macron dissolved France’s national legislature following a crushing defeat for his Renaissance party in Sunday’s European Parliament election. The first round of elections is slated for June 30, less than three weeks away, with a runoff on July 7.
Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant, right-wing National Rally party, or RN, is expected to win 235 to 265 members in the National Assembly.
According to Toluna Harris Interactive’s study for Challenges, M6, and RTL, this is a significant increase from its present 88, but it falls short of the 289 required for an absolute majority.
According to the poll, Macron’s centrist alliance might see its number of lawmakers cut in half, from 250 to 125-155. Left-wing parties might control 115 to 145 seats combined, although each could run on its own.
There is no guarantee that the RN would lead the government, with or without a partnership with others. Other alternatives include a broad coalition of mainstream parties or a hung parliament.
Stocks drop in France
However, Macron’s unexpected move gives the increasingly popular extreme right a legitimate shot at power. This amounted to a gamble on his political destiny, and the euro instantly fell, as did French stocks and government bonds. RN got 31.4% of the European Parliament vote, while the Renaissance party coalition had 14.6%.
Even if the RN gains a majority in the French parliament, Macron will stay president for three more years and continue to be in charge of defense and foreign policy.
However, he would lose control of the domestic agenda, including economic policy, security, immigration, and finance, which would have an impact on other measures, such as aid to Ukraine, because he would need parliament’s approval to fund any assistance as part of France’s budget.
“We’re still in shock,” Emmanuel Pellerin, a Renaissance Party legislator, told Reuters. “Everything points to the RN achieving a relative or absolute majority. But this forces the French to consider what is at risk.
In that setting, political parties were rushing to field candidates and negotiate potential coalitions.
On Monday, RN leaders Jordan Bardella and Le Pen met with Marion Marechal of the minor far-right group Reconquete. Marechal is Le Pen’s niece and was a senior member of her party prior to their split.
Left-wing fractured
Following the meeting, Bardella stated that talks were underway to form an alliance. He also mentioned that he was speaking with several members of the conservative Les Republicains.
“I fervently wish that we can all find ways to come together,” Marechal told Reuters.
Leaders of France’s very split left, including the hard-left LFI (France Unbowed), Communists, Socialists, and Greens, were also in negotiations.
“We don’t have time to procrastinate,” LFI’s Manon Aubry told reporters. “The objective is to be able to meet again, to build the future and above all to go and win.”
According to a source close to Macron, the 46-year-old leader, whose power has dwindled since losing his absolute majority in parliament two years ago, reckoned that he might regain a majority by surprising everyone.
For Le Pen and Bardella, the goal is to turn popularity into victory. The vote is expected to center not only on dissatisfaction with Macron’s leadership style, cost of living, and immigration policies, but also on whether the RN can be trusted to manage a major European government.
Among the party’s policies, the RN has supported increased public spending, despite already high levels of French debt, threatening to increase bank funding costs.
The RN also wants to expel more migrants, end family reunification, limit childcare subsidies for French citizens, give French nationals priority in access to social housing and jobs, and revoke residency for migrants who have been out of work for more than one year.
The euro plunged by up to 0.6%, while Paris blue-chip stocks fell by 1.4%, led by heavy losses in banks BNP Paribas.
The early election will take place shortly before the July 26 start of the Paris Olympics, when all eyes will be on France.
Source: Reuters
Politics
Millennials in Canada Have Turned their Backs on Justin Trudeau
Justine Trudeau and his Liberal Party are currently engaged in a fierce battle for second place against Jagmeet Singh’s socialist NDP, as both parties find themselves trailing by 20 points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
A recent poll indicates that 38% of Canadians consider Trudeau to be the most ineffective leader the nation has encountered in over fifty years. An impressive 47% of Canadian Millennials indicated they would support Poilievre if an election were to take place today, while nearly half of all Canadians express a desire for an election to be called this year.
Pierre Poilievre’s strong appeal among young voters can be attributed primarily to economic factors: soaring inflation, a pressing cost-of-living crisis, and the challenge of housing affordability are pushing many away from the Liberals, who have held power for nearly nine years.
According to UnHeard, Millennials are increasingly distancing themselves from Trudeau due to his stringent measures aimed at controlling the internet to combat alleged disinformation, as well as his climate change initiatives, notably the carbon tax.
An increasing number of Canadians are becoming aware of Trudeau’s ineffective policies and his approach to mass immigration. This past summer, there was significant outrage among parents of teenagers and young adults as they observed their children remaining at home without jobs.
The primary concern stemmed from the fact that most low-skilled and entry-level positions were being filled by unskilled, temporary foreign workers, predominantly from India.
There has been a notable rise in criminal activities linked to international students and unvetted temporary residents who are becoming involved with Punjabi gangs in Canada, contributing to a surge in auto thefts nationwide.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are actively seeking to alter Trudeau’s approach to mass immigration and prioritize the construction of more housing should they come into power.
Significantly, Pierre Poilievre is perceived as more trustworthy than Trudeau, with over half of Canadians characterizing Poilievre as “open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions,” while only 39% share that sentiment regarding Trudeau.
The characteristics in question may shed light on Poilievre’s favorable polling, particularly among younger voters and women, who have historically leaned towards the Liberals or the NDP rather than the Conservatives.
The Liberal Party’s support has dwindled to an estimated 7% of Canadians, revealing a significant number of disillusioned voters eager for transformation. Poilievre is emerging as the type of leader that resonates with the desires of many Canadians.
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Politics
U.N. Special Rapporteur Calls on Thailand’s Banks to Cut-Off Myanmar Junta
The U.N special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar has said the Bank of Thailand, commercial banks, and the anti-money laundering office are working on measures to stop the Myanmar Junta from acquiring weapons through Thailand’s banking system.
Tom Andrews the U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, said that some banks commercial in Thailand had aided Myanmar Junta’s by facilitating transactions that supplied military equipment to the Junta through the international banking system.
He called on the Bank of Thailand and financial institutions to do more to stop Myanmar’s junta acquiring weapons which they use on civilians to maintain power.
The special rapporteur was in Bangkok to address a parliamentary committee on security, he called on the Thai government to stop financial transactions that help supply weapons to Myanmar’s junta in line with a plan promoted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that sets out an end to violence as a first step toward peace.
In his 2023 report “The Billion Dollar Death Trade,” Andrews noted that Singapore had implemented a clear policy opposing the transfer of weapons to Myanmar.
Thailand’s Banks Lacked Clear Policy
As a result, exports of weapons and related materials from Singapore-registered entities using the formal banking system dropped from almost U.S. $120 million in fiscal year 2022 to just over $10 million over the next 12 months.
However, he said Thailand had no explicit policy position opposing weapons transfer to the Myanmar Junta, which saw exports from Thai-registered entities more than double in 2023, from just over $60 million to nearly $130 million.
He called on Thai Government to conduct a thorough investigation into transfers as Singapore had done into its companies’ dealings.
Andrews told the the committee that five Thai commercial banks and Thai-based companies were assisting Myanmar’s junta obtain weapons, dual-technology items and jet fuel, enabling Military Junta to conduct atrocities against the people.
But said he had found no evidence that the Thai government was involved or was aware of the transactions or that Thai commercial banks had knowledge.
Banks Condemn Myanmar Junta Violence
Meanwhile representatives from Thailand’s central bank, anti-money laundering office and the commercial banks named in the report were also present at the parliamentary meeting at government house in Bangkok.
A representative of the Bank of Thailand said officials were working with the commercial banks and the anti-money laundering office to make sure that enhanced oversight was properly practiced.
The Thai Bankers Association that was also at the parliamentary meeting said it did not have the means to investigate and monitor such irregularities beyond Thailand’s borders.
Mr. Pongsit Chaichatpornsuk, a Thai Bankers Association representative told the committee that If government security agencies tell us, we will stop transactions. We don’t support arms procurement by Myanmar Junta or any military government to violate human rights.
Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar and hosts many thousands of refugees fleeing conflict there, has tried to promote dialogue between Myanmar’s military rulers and opposition forces but no progress has been made.
This Article was first published in RFA
Politics
People Rushing Sign Online Petition to Impeach South Korea’s President Crash Site
The Speaker of the National Assembly of South Korea said in a statement that an online petition calling for South Korea’s President Mr. Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment crashed due to the enormous number of individuals attempting to sign the petition. Saying the National Assembly would resolve the matter as quickly as possible.
Since the petition was launch on the National Assembly’s website on June 20, more than 811,000 people have signed it. The petition urges Parliament to introduce legislation to impeach President Yoon on the grounds that he is unfit for office.
Late on June 30, National Assembly Speaker Mr. Woo Won-shik issued an apology for the disturbance and stated that Parliament would take action to protect the public’s fundamental rights.
People attempting to access the petition on July 1 experienced delays of up to four hours. At one point, an error message indicated that more than 30,000 individuals were waiting to access the site.
South Korea’s Parliament Hesitant
The online petition accuses Yoon of corruption, escalating the risk of conflict with North Korea, and endangering South Koreans’ health by failing to prevent Japan from leaking treated radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant.
By law, Parliament must assign every petition signed by more than 50,000 people to a committee, which will then decide whether to put it to a vote in the assembly.
However, the opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in Parliament, is hesitant to turn the petition into an impeachment bill, according to media reports, with a spokesperson stating that the party has yet to address the topic.
The Parliament can impeach a president with a two-thirds majority. The Constitutional Court then deliberates the motion and decides whether to remove or reinstall the president.
Meanwhile, on Monday Reuters reported North Korea criticized a joint military exercise performed this month by South Korea, Japan, and the United States, according to official media, saying such drills demonstrate the three nations’ alliance has evolved into “the Asian version of NATO”.
On Thursday, the three countries began large-scale combined military drills named “Freedom Edge” featuring navy destroyers, fighter fighters, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, with the goal of strengthening defenses against missiles, submarines, and air strikes.
The drill was designed at a three-way meeting at Camp David last year to boost military cooperation amid concerns on the Korean peninsula caused by North Korea’s weapons testing.
Pyongyang will not overlook the strengthening of a military bloc led by the United States and its allies, and it would respond aggressively and decisively to defend regional peace, according to North Korea’s foreign ministry, as reported by KCNA.
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